Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T04:46:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1D 0x1d3d…3e56 politics 137 markets active 2h ago coverage 102d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$47 (-0%) realized −$47 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate16%22W / 114L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$140per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$16
14 days−$28
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 30% −$8
sports 23% −$10
other 21% −$19
crypto 10% −$12
world 6% −$1
finance 4% −$9
economics 4% −$2
tech 1% $0
culture 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -1.0% -10.4% 10% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 69 -0.9% -10.3% 9% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 117 -0.5% -10.0% 16% 0% -9.8%
all 136 -0.5% -10.0% 16% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized−$47
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses22 / 114
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)136 / 137
History coverage102d
Avg bet$140
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 136 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? No 96¢ 95¢ $49 $48 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 20 $114 −$1 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 19 $501 −$2 -0%
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 19 $40 $0 -0%
Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 19 $44 −$1 -2%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 18 $61 $0 -1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 18 $163 −$3 -2%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $57 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 17 $106 −$1 -1%
Will Ivory Coast reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $41 −$2 -6%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $404 $0 +0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $56 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $52 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $46 +$1 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $45 −$1 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $44 $0 -1%
Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $115 $0 -0%
Will Belgium reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 14 $61 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $56 −$1 -1%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $95 −$1 -1%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $83 $0 -0%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 13 $115 −$2 -2%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $178 −$1 -0%
Will Raphinha be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $59 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $86 $0 -0%
Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 11 $54 −$1 -1%
Will Argentina score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $3 $0 -4%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $117 $0 -0%
Will Bart Verbruggen record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA Wor Jun 11 $66 −$1 -1%
Will Senegal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $28 −$1 -3%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 10 $94 $0 -0%
Will Portugal score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $42 −$2 -5%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? Jun 10 $49 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $300 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 09 $49 −$2 -4%
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $47 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 07 $58 −$1 -1%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $268 −$1 -0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $48 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $55 −$1 -2%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $54 $0 -1%
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $49 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 05 $65 −$1 -2%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $61 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $180,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $51 −$1 -1%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 04 $269 −$1 -0%
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $19 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 03 $52 $0 -0%
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 02 $65 −$1 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? Jun 02 $55 $0 -1%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $85 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 96¢ $49 1h
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $55 2h
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $55 8h
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 93¢ $38 8h
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 94¢ $39 12h
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 97¢ $40 13h
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 97¢ $40 20h
Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 93¢ $44 21h
Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 94¢ $44 29h
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 97¢ $61 29h
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $61 37h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $49 38h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $50 46h
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $57 47h
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $57 2d
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $58 2d
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $58 2d
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 97¢ $43 2d
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $43 2d
Will Ivory Coast reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 91¢ $38 2d
Will Ivory Coast reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $41 3d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $53 3d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $53 3d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $55 3d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $56 3d
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $52 3d
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $52 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 98¢ $46 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $46 4d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $54 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.48 · official $48.48 (match) · 495 history records