Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:10:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
1D 0x1d3f…87bd other 28 markets active 1h ago coverage 96d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$26 (+1%) realized +$201 · open −$175
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate48%12W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$77per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$19
7 days−$65
14 days−$145
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% −$351
politics 16% +$104
sports 14% +$128
crypto 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -15.1% -23.2% 50% 33% -16.6%
≤30d 18 +1.2% -8.4% 50% 33% -9.4%
≤90d 24 -1.1% -10.5% 50% 38% -4.4%
all 25 -4.6% -13.7% 48% 36% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.7% 36% -7.1%
10% -21.9% 32% -16.0%
15% -29.5% 28% -24.1%
20% -36.4% 28% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late -22% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$32 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$201
Unrealized−$175
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses12 / 13
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)25 / 28
History coverage96d
Avg bet$77
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 76¢ $175 $0 −$175 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $151 +$19 +12%
Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $25 +$22 +86%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $3 −$1 -24%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $101 +$1 +1%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 AND Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Jun 19 $20 +$19 +92%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 +$55 +55%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $232 +$1 +0%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 $0 -5%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $151 −$150 -99%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$17 +340%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $331 +$28 +8%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$6 -12%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $218 +$147 +67%
Will Janez Janša be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? May 06 $178 +$40 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Apr 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Apr 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 15 $50 −$49 -98%
Will Anže Logar be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? Apr 15 $53 +$76 +144%
Will Robert Golob be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? Apr 01 $50 +$41 +83%
Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win the most seats in the 20 Mar 22 $60 −$53 -89%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 57¢ $25 47m
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 80¢ $151 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 99¢ $169 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 88¢ $151 5h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY 50¢ $20 2d
Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals SELL Yes $0 2d
Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals BUY Yes 58¢ $20 2d
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 3d
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? AND BUY 43¢ $20 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 83¢ $102 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 81¢ $101 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY 53¢ $25 4d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 AND Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to SELL 92¢ $39 4d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 AND Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to BUY 47¢ $20 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 5d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 6d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 84¢ $116 6d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 17¢ $10 6d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 79¢ $111 6d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 6d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 58¢ $116 6d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $121 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $51 6d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 78¢ $101 6d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 74¢ $101 8d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 86¢ $23 9d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 9d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $359 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.12 · official $0.12 (match) · 79 history records