Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T01:13:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
1D 0x1d3f…7fec sports 1368 markets active 0h ago coverage 121d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 121d only
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$19,902 (+4%) realized +$19,877 · open +$25
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate99%1346W / 18L
Whale WR92%big bets
Drawdown3%max
Avg bet$396per market
Trades / day15.8pace
Fees−$114est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$2,311now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$175
7 days+$1,301
14 days+$1,390
30 days+$7,662
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 63% +$877
sports 35% +$15,219
other 3% +$2,502
world 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)+9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 +8.9% -1.5% 97% 22% -6.2%
≤30d 75 +16.6% +5.5% 99% 24% -7.5%
≤90d 448 +53.0% +38.4% 99% 13% -7.2%
all 1364 +20.8% +9.3% 99% 6% -6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.3% 6% -6.8%
10% -1.2% 4% -15.7%
15% -10.7% 3% -23.9%
20% -19.5% 3% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 92% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +6% → late +35% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$67 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×18.36 per $1 lost it wins $18.36
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

121d coverage
Net worth$2,311
Realized+$19,877
Unrealized+$25
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses1346 / 18
Whale WR (big bets)92%
Est. fees paid−$114
Open positions4
Markets (closed)1364 / 1368
History coverage121d ⚠
Avg bet$396
Trades / day15.8
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 1364 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Fight to Go the Distance? No 99¢ 100¢ $1,924 $1,943 +$19 (+1%)
O/U 1.5 Rounds Under 98¢ 100¢ $182 $186 +$4 (+2%)
O/U 2.5 Rounds Under 99¢ 100¢ $179 $181 +$2 (+1%)
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 99¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+97%)
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? Jun 21 $5 $0 +1%
O/U 0.5 Rounds Jun 21 $104 +$1 +1%
Will Andre Fili win by KO or TKO? Jun 21 $5 $0 +1%
Will Vinicius Oliveira win by KO or TKO? Jun 21 $104 +$1 +1%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 21 $95 +$1 +1%
Will the fight be won by submission? Jun 21 $5 $0 +1%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 21 $104 +$1 +1%
Will Kevin Borjas win by KO or TKO? Jun 21 $1,490 +$15 +1%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? Jun 21 $5 $0 +1%
Will the fight be won by submission? Jun 21 $5 $0 +1%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 21 $74 +$6 +8%
O/U 0.5 Rounds Jun 21 $1,454 +$44 +3%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 21 $311 +$51 +16%
O/U 0.5 Rounds Jun 20 $1,290 +$51 +4%
Will the fight be won by submission? Jun 20 $5 $0 +1%
Will Allan Nascimento win by KO or TKO? Jun 20 $5 $0 +1%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? Jun 20 $5 $0 +1%
Will Mitch Raposo win by KO or TKO? Jun 20 $38 +$1 +3%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 20 $93 +$2 +2%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 20 $54 +$1 +2%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $20,438 $0 +0%
O/U 3.5 Rounds Jun 15 $4,403 +$83 +2%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 15 $2,022 +$38 +2%
Will the fight be won by submission? Jun 15 $948 +$114 +12%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $645 +$322 +50%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $1,645 +$505 +31%
O/U 3.5 Rounds Jun 15 $95 +$5 +5%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $52 +$7 +12%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $69 +$29 +42%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 15 $16 $0 +1%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $36 +$4 +11%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $14 +$13 +88%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $59 +$1 +2%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $53 +$1 +1%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $123 +$1 +1%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 15 $35 +$3 +9%
Will Belal Muhammad win by KO or TKO? Jun 07 $73 +$1 +1%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? Jun 07 $104 +$1 +1%
Will the fight be won by submission? Jun 07 $69 +$1 +1%
Will Gabriel Bonfim win by KO or TKO? Jun 07 $41 $0 +1%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 07 $74 +$1 +1%
O/U 3.5 Rounds Jun 07 $59 +$1 +1%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 07 $86 +$1 +1%
O/U 0.5 Rounds Jun 07 $48 +$1 +1%
O/U 4.5 Rounds Jun 07 $104 +$1 +1%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 07 $90 +$1 +1%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 07 $84 +$1 +1%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 07 $122 +$23 +19%
Will Farés Ziam win by KO or TKO? Jun 07 $36 +$6 +16%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? Jun 07 $26 +$1 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Under 99¢ $99 18m
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Under 99¢ $69 19m
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Under 99¢ $109 22m
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Under 96¢ $83 22m
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY No 99¢ $1,925 22m
Will Andre Fili win by KO or TKO? BUY No 99¢ $5 38m
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 38m
Will the fight be won by submission? BUY No 99¢ $5 38m
Will Vinicius Oliveira win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 99¢ $104 39m
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY No 99¢ $104 41m
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 99¢ $95 44m
O/U 0.5 Rounds BUY Over 99¢ $5 45m
O/U 0.5 Rounds BUY Over 99¢ $99 50m
Will the fight be won by submission? BUY No 99¢ $5 1h
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? BUY No 99¢ $5 1h
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY Yes 99¢ $104 1h
Will Kevin Borjas win by KO or TKO? BUY No 99¢ $1,490 1h
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Over 96¢ $29 1h
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY Yes 80¢ $207 1h
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Over 90¢ $45 1h
O/U 0.5 Rounds BUY Over 97¢ $1,454 1h
O/U 0.5 Rounds BUY Over 96¢ $1,290 1h
Will the fight be won by submission? BUY No 99¢ $5 2h
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? BUY No 99¢ $5 2h
Will Allan Nascimento win by KO or TKO? BUY No 99¢ $5 2h
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 2h
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY Yes 98¢ $49 2h
Will Mitch Raposo win by KO or TKO? BUY No 99¢ $5 2h
Will Mitch Raposo win by KO or TKO? BUY No 97¢ $33 2h
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Over 98¢ $93 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,311.32 · official $2,311.32 (match) · 3500 history records