Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:34:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1D 0x1d41…24d7 weather 454 markets active 2h ago coverage 85d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$836 (-2%) realized −$802 · open −$34
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate56%251W / 196L
Whale WR85%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$98per market
Trades / day23.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$2,699now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$60
14 days−$3,538
30 days−$3,427
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 81% −$1,209
world 15% +$128
crypto 3% +$3
sports 1% −$23
other 0% −$8
finance 0% −$6
politics 0% $0
tech 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-21.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -75.6% -77.9% 12% 12% -30.7%
≤30d 86 -65.3% -68.6% 23% 13% -42.3%
≤90d 447 -13.1% -21.4% 56% 27% -11.9%
all 447 -13.1% -21.4% 56% 27% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.4% 27% -11.9%
10% ← realistic here -28.9% 14% -20.3%
15% -35.8% 10% -28.0%
20% -42.1% 7% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
49% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 85% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -8% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$25 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

85d coverage
Net worth$2,699
Realized−$802
Unrealized−$34
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses251 / 196
Whale WR (big bets)85%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions7
Markets (closed)447 / 454
History coverage85d
Avg bet$98
Trades / day23.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 447 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 58¢ 57¢ $2,555 $2,514 −$41 (-2%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? No 48¢ 50¢ $100 $106 +$6 (+6%)
Will the announcers say "Crossbar" during the Spain vs Saudi Arabia FIFA World Cup Match? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-5%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 42¢ 42¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will the announcers say "Crossbar" during the Brazil vs Haiti FIFA World Cup Match? Yes 35¢ 33¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-6%)
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 36¢ 60¢ $6 $10 +$4 (+65%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the fight be won by submission? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 9? Jun 16 $101 −$23 -22%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 8? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 8? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 15 $100 +$18 +18%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $100 −$24 -24%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 11 $25 −$13 -52%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 10 $100 +$6 +6%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 09 $100 +$15 +15%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 8? Jun 09 $252 +$37 +15%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 8? Jun 08 $100 +$6 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C or below on May 8? Jun 08 $227 −$227 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on May 25? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on May 11? Jun 08 $201 −$201 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on April 29? Jun 08 $308 −$308 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on May 25? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on April 30? Jun 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on May 1? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 25°C or higher on May 9? Jun 08 $86 −$17 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C on May 5? Jun 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on May 4? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 12°C on May 12? Jun 08 $101 −$18 -18%
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on May 25? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 15°C on May 10? Jun 08 $36 −$36 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 13°C on May 12? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on Ma Jun 08 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on May 1? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on May 25? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 66-67°F on May 7? Jun 08 $51 −$43 -84%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on May 1? Jun 08 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 66°F or higher on May 22? Jun 08 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on April 29? Jun 08 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 08 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 08 $36 −$25 -70%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on April 29? Jun 08 $206 −$199 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 30°C on May 6? Jun 08 $57 −$57 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on May 1? Jun 08 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on May 5? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on May 1? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C or higher on May 11? Jun 08 $422 −$422 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 13°C on April 30? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C on May 5? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 23°C on April 30? Jun 08 $37 −$27 -73%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 16°C on May 9? Jun 08 $176 −$176 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 32°C on May 8? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 23°C on May 1? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $20 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 59¢ $555 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? BUY No 48¢ $50 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 59¢ $500 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 59¢ $300 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 58¢ $200 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 58¢ $1,000 2h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? BUY No 48¢ $50 2h
Will the announcers say "Crossbar" during the Brazil vs Haiti FIFA Wor BUY Yes 35¢ $21 4h
Will the announcers say "Crossbar" during the Spain vs Saudi Arabia FI BUY Yes 29¢ $26 4h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 100¢ $118 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 53¢ $5 4d
Will the fight be won by submission? BUY Yes 18¢ $6 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Aiemann Zahabi 23¢ $20 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Aiemann Zahabi 23¢ $5 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 65¢ $76 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 28¢ $12 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 58¢ $25 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 11d
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 8? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 11d
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 8? BUY No 87¢ $101 11d
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 8? BUY No 87¢ $50 11d
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 8? BUY No 86¢ $101 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $1,182 11d
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 9? SELL No 79¢ $20 11d
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 9? SELL No 78¢ $19 11d
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 9? SELL No 80¢ $40 11d
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 8? BUY No 94¢ $100 11d
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? BUY No 87¢ $100 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,699.21 · official $2,699.21 (match) · 2353 history records