Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:39:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1D 0x1d41…a9c0 crypto 57 markets active 0h ago coverage 13d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (52 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$123 (-5%) realized −$118 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate29%16W / 40L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day51.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 13d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$160
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (52 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -8.4% -17.1% 18% 18% -11.4%
≤30d 56 -6.9% -15.7% 29% 18% -15.1%
≤90d 56 -6.9% -15.7% 29% 18% -15.1%
all 56 -6.9% -15.7% 29% 18% -15.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover51.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.7% 18% -15.1%
10% ← realistic here -23.8% 12% -23.2%
15% -31.2% 9% -30.6%
20% -37.9% 9% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -22% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
11.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$9 · ×1.39 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$19
Realized−$118
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses16 / 40
Open positions1
Markets (closed)56 / 57
History coverage13d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day51.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Up 76¢ 80¢ $14 $15 +$1 (+4%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Down 47¢ 20¢ $9 $4 −$5 (-57%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 18 $24 −$4 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 18 $88 −$11 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 18 $72 −$2 -3%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 18 $52 −$15 -28%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 18 $61 +$18 +29%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 18 $21 −$10 -47%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 18 $47 +$53 +112%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 18 $35 −$10 -28%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 18 $51 +$7 +15%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 18 $37 −$9 -24%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 18 $66 −$11 -16%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 18 $64 −$9 -14%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 18 $73 −$7 -10%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 18 $35 $0 -1%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 18 $40 $0 -1%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 18 $28 −$6 -20%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 18 $34 −$2 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 06 $110 −$16 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 06 $39 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 06 $34 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 06 $84 −$8 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 05 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 05 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 05 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 05 $33 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 05 $21 +$12 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 05 $22 −$2 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 05 $31 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 05 $36 −$9 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 05 $37 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 05 $47 −$15 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 05 $52 −$11 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 05 $42 +$23 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 05 $54 −$12 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 05 $50 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 05 $43 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 05 $40 +$7 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 05 $32 +$8 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 05 $20 +$13 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 05 $5 +$15 +285%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 05 $53 −$20 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 05 $93 −$45 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 05 $89 −$10 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 05 $86 +$18 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 05 $24 −$4 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 05 $77 −$4 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 05 $98 −$3 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 05 $101 −$6 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $4 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $4 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $4 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $0 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $0 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $0 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $2 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $4 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $0 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $0 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $0 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $6 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $3 15m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.08 · official $19.22 (match) · 737 history records