Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:50:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1D 0x1d45…d2af sports 425 markets active 1h ago coverage 90d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$38 (-2%) realized −$72 · open +$14
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate59%221W / 155L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day7.3pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$180now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$2
14 days−$10
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% −$59
other 26% +$23
crypto 6% −$10
politics 4% +$11
finance 2% −$22
world 1% −$7
tech 1% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +24.1% +12.3% 75% 75% +19.7%
≤30d 57 -6.0% -14.9% 60% 58% -10.3%
≤90d 376 -7.3% -16.1% 59% 54% -13.4%
all 376 -7.3% -16.1% 59% 54% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.1% 54% -13.4%
10% -24.1% 43% -21.7%
15% -31.5% 32% -29.3%
20% -38.2% 22% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$180
Realized−$72
Unrealized+$14
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses221 / 155
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions49
Markets (closed)376 / 425
History coverage90d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day7.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 49 History 376 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 52¢ 94¢ $10 $18 +$8 (+80%)
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 34¢ 61¢ $10 $18 +$8 (+78%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Yes 82¢ 81¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 48¢ 46¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-3%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Yes 87¢ 86¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 44¢ 44¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 92¢ 92¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
HSBC Championships: Karolina Pliskova vs McCartney Kessler Jun 08 $2 +$2 +76%
Libema Open: Daria Snigur vs Paula Badosa Jun 08 $2 $0 +21%
Stuttgart Open: Pierre-Hugues Herbert vs Martin Landaluce Jun 08 $1 +$1 +60%
Libema Open: Marin Cilic vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 08 $1 −$1 -60%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $10 +$5 +53%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $4 −$4 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $5 +$1 +14%
Birmingham: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Aleksandar Vukic Jun 02 $4 +$5 +114%
Birmingham: Coleman Wong vs Oliver Tarvet Jun 02 $2 +$1 +44%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $3 $0 +15%
Birmingham: Zhizhen Zhang vs Otto Virtanen Jun 02 $2 −$2 -98%
Perugia: Gonzalo Bueno vs Dusan Lajovic Jun 02 $1 −$1 -98%
Heilbronn: Marvin Moeller vs Gauthier Onclin Jun 02 $2 −$2 -99%
Prostejov: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Hynek Barton Jun 02 $2 −$2 -99%
Birmingham: Mackenzie McDonald vs Nicolai Budkov Kjaer Jun 02 $1 −$1 -98%
Perugia: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Lorenzo Carboni Jun 02 $2 −$2 -99%
Prostejov: Vitaliy Sachko vs Jan Kumstat Jun 02 $2 −$2 -99%
Perugia: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Michele Ribecai Jun 01 $5 +$2 +31%
Heilbronn: Max Houkes vs Emilio Nava Jun 01 $4 +$1 +23%
Prostejov: Alexander Shevchenko vs Raul Brancaccio Jun 01 $2 +$1 +36%
Heilbronn: Lorenzo Giustino vs Marko Topo Jun 01 $3 −$3 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Matteo Berrettini Jun 01 $3 +$1 +39%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Tabilo Jun 01 $16 −$2 -12%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 01 $2 −$2 -98%
Heilbronn: Joel Schwaerzler vs Matej Dodig Jun 01 $2 −$2 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Madison Keys vs Diana Shnaider Jun 01 $3 −$3 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Yibing Wu May 28 $1 $0 +27%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Hamad Medjedovic May 27 $2 +$1 +40%
Roland Garros ATP: Lorenzo Sonego vs Tommy Paul May 27 $1 $0 +17%
Roland Garros ATP: Valentin Royer vs Novak Djokovic May 27 $3 $0 +13%
Kosice: Lilian Marmousez vs Taro Daniel May 27 $2 +$1 +40%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Kaitlin Quevedo May 27 $5 $0 +8%
Centurion: Harold Mayot vs Semen Pankin May 27 $1 +$3 +250%
Roland Garros ATP: Ugo Humbert vs Quentin Halys May 27 $2 −$2 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Mariano Navone vs Jakub Mensik May 27 $2 −$2 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Jacob Fearnley vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo May 26 $1 $0 +20%
Roland Garros ATP: Ethan Quinn vs Francisco Comesana May 26 $2 +$1 +62%
Roland Garros ATP: Sebastian Ofner vs Luciano Darderi May 26 $1 $0 +32%
Vicenza: Enrico Dalla Valle vs Joel Schwaerzler May 26 $3 +$3 +114%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Daniel Altmaier May 26 $1 −$1 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Jaime Faria vs Denis Shapovalov May 26 $1 −$1 -98%
Little Rock: Ronald Hohmann vs Murphy Cassone May 26 $2 −$2 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Akasha Urhobo vs Katie Boulter May 25 $1 $0 +42%
Roland Garros WTA: Camila Osorio vs Ekaterina Alexandrova May 25 $2 +$2 +76%
Roland Garros ATP: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Ben Shelton May 25 $2 +$1 +27%
Roland Garros ATP: Ignacio Buse vs Andrey Rublev May 25 $1 +$1 +50%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Bondar May 25 $1 +$1 +73%
Kosice: Dominic Stephan Stricker vs Martin Krumich May 25 $2 +$1 +60%
Roland Garros ATP: Hugo Gaston vs Gael Monfils May 25 $2 −$2 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Emilio Nava vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli May 25 $1 −$1 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 82¢ $5 54m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 48¢ $4 54m
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 77¢ $5 54m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 44¢ $2 54m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 54m
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 69¢ $1 55m
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 55m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 55m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 27¢ $3 55m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 55m
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 55m
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 55m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 70¢ $3 56m
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 45¢ $2 56m
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $2 56m
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 76¢ $3 56m
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 45¢ $2 57m
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes $1 57m
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 89¢ $2 57m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $4 57m
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 57m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 56¢ $2 57m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $4 57m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $4 57m
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 90¢ $2 57m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 87¢ $3 57m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 58m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $8 58m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $2 58m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $4 59m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $180.21 · official $180.21 (match) · 849 history records