Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T18:38:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1D 0x1d46…9a63 crypto 45 markets active 1h ago coverage 83d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$629 (-9%) realized −$623 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate43%19W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$155per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$76
7 days−$104
14 days−$104
30 days−$660
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$892
economics 1% −$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-26.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -30.9% -37.5% 29% 14% -28.3%
≤30d 19 -21.2% -28.7% 26% 21% -31.4%
≤90d 44 -18.7% -26.4% 43% 23% -21.9%
all 44 -18.7% -26.4% 43% 23% -21.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.4% 23% -21.9%
10% -33.5% 11% -29.3%
15% -39.9% 7% -36.2%
20% -45.8% 7% -42.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$54 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

83d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized−$623
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses19 / 25
Open positions1
Markets (closed)44 / 45
History coverage83d
Avg bet$155
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2PM ET Up 56¢ 46¢ $35 $29 −$6 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1PM ET Jun 22 $82 −$31 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12PM ET Jun 22 $159 +$13 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11AM ET Jun 22 $31 +$25 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10AM ET Jun 22 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9AM ET Jun 22 $107 −$11 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11AM ET Jun 22 $21 −$21 -100%
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meetin Jun 16 $51 −$29 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11PM ET May 31 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10PM ET May 29 $96 −$93 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8AM ET May 29 $606 −$417 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7AM ET May 27 $253 −$22 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6AM ET May 27 $153 +$128 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5AM ET May 27 $380 −$92 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3AM ET May 27 $153 −$32 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2AM ET May 27 $257 −$17 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1AM ET May 27 $49 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12AM ET May 27 $154 −$35 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11PM ET May 27 $26 +$38 +144%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10PM ET May 27 $106 +$18 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2PM ET May 22 $47 −$14 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1PM ET May 22 $36 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12PM ET May 22 $165 −$17 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11AM ET May 22 $332 −$47 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10AM ET May 22 $154 −$16 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9AM ET May 22 $151 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8AM ET May 22 $130 +$27 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7AM ET May 22 $77 +$8 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6AM ET May 22 $52 +$14 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5AM ET May 22 $313 +$27 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4AM ET May 22 $401 +$13 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3AM ET May 22 $281 −$32 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1AM ET May 22 $182 +$21 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12AM ET May 22 $182 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11PM ET May 22 $52 +$11 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10PM ET May 22 $103 +$24 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11AM ET May 16 $541 −$96 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8AM ET May 16 $308 +$11 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7AM ET May 15 $119 −$115 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6AM ET May 15 $231 +$41 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 9AM ET Apr 19 $46 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 8AM ET Apr 19 $137 −$50 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 6AM ET Apr 19 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 9AM ET Apr 14 $93 −$36 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Apr 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $26 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1PM ET SELL Up 16¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $54 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12PM ET SELL Down 79¢ $62 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $56 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $56 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $71 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $25 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9AM ET SELL Down 29¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.14 · official $36.03 · 375 history records