Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:21:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1D 0x1d47…f49f crypto 1331 markets active 0h ago coverage 44d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 43d only
✗ bot/MM pace (73 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$202 (+4%) realized +$202 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate36%497W / 885L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day73.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$154
7 days−$181
14 days−$192
30 days−$251
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$183
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (73 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 102 -57.1% -61.2% 17% 10% -35.1%
≤30d 386 -19.6% -27.2% 26% 20% -20.7%
≤90d 1382 -6.5% -15.4% 36% 29% -14.0%
all 1382 -6.5% -15.4% 36% 29% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover73.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.4% 29% -14.0%
10% ← realistic here -23.5% 25% -22.2%
15% -30.9% 19% -29.7%
20% -37.6% 14% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$202
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses497 / 885
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1382 / 1331
History coverage44d ⚠
Avg bet$4
Trades / day73.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1382 Trades
no open positions (149 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$2 -227%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -135%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$7 -113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$5 -214%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$2 -161%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$4 -129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$2 -122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$6 -129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$2 -226%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$2 -131%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 16 $0 −$2 -1677%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$2 -211%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -128%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 28, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$3 -124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$3 -123%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 16 $0 −$2 -751%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$2 -113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -136%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$3 -186%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$5 -124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -162%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$3 -177%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $3 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Up 39¢ $3 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $3 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET SELL Down 11¢ $3 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $3 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET SELL Up 58¢ $3 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Up 32¢ $2 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $3 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Up 29¢ $2 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $3 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Down 57¢ $3 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $3 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $3 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Up 57¢ $4 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $3 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Up 38¢ $2 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $3 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET SELL Up 63¢ $3 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $3 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $3 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Down 68¢ $3 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $3 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Up 53¢ $3 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Up 63¢ $3 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Up 56¢ $3 55m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.17 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records