Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T03:29:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
1D 0x1d49…7cc0 sports 360 markets active 0h ago coverage 47d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 47d only
✗ bot/MM pace (56 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$11,426 (+5%) realized +$11,316 · open +$110
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate67%239W / 119L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$675per market
Trades / day56.3pace
Fees−$2,272est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$1,690now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,373
7 days+$5,950
14 days+$11,604
30 days+$4,388
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% +$8,870
other 12% +$3,088
crypto 0% +$287
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (56 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 57 -10.7% -19.2% 67% 56% -3.8%
≤30d 185 -6.5% -15.4% 67% 63% -7.5%
≤90d 358 +17.1% +6.0% 67% 57% -4.9%
all 358 +17.1% +6.0% 67% 57% -4.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover56.3 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +6.0% 57% -4.9%
10% -4.2% 40% -14.0%
15% ← realistic here -13.4% 29% -22.3%
20% -21.9% 21% -29.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$777) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +42% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$257 vs −$415 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

47d coverage
Net worth$1,690
Realized+$11,316
Unrealized+$110
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses239 / 119
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Est. fees paid−$2,272
Open positions2
Markets (closed)358 / 360
History coverage47d ⚠
Avg bet$675
Trades / day56.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 358 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Under 79¢ 86¢ $790 $865 +$75 (+9%)
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) Türkiye 79¢ 82¢ $790 $825 +$35 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 39 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $2,850 +$150 +5%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $912 +$88 +10%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 20 $660 +$340 +52%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Scotland O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $477 +$273 +57%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $775 +$225 +29%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $657 −$650 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $3,164 +$5,286 +167%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $19 +$2 +10%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 7.5 Jun 19 $4,273 +$817 +19%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $2,131 −$2,122 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $2,187 −$2,150 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $691 −$690 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $537 −$479 -89%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $508 −$500 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $577 +$215 +37%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $7,812 +$1,568 +20%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $2 +$3 +113%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $3,366 +$3,384 +100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $834 +$166 +20%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $2,877 −$2,840 -99%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $1,469 −$1,450 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $3,361 +$129 +4%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $3,827 +$673 +18%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $3,440 +$1,257 +36%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $883 +$117 +13%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $407 +$53 +13%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5,070 +$727 +14%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $883 +$117 +13%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 16 $5,051 +$17 +0%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $902 −$892 -99%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $657 −$650 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $12 −$9 -70%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $783 +$217 +28%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $432 +$68 +16%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $417 −$415 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $883 +$117 +13%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $3,680 +$1,100 +30%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $3,185 +$1,815 +57%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 15 $6,320 +$1,667 +26%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $497 −$490 -98%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $660 −$660 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $6,993 +$1,007 +14%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $1,742 −$1,737 -100%
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) Jun 15 $893 −$890 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $834 −$830 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $626 −$620 -99%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Jun 15 $912 +$88 +10%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $299 +$201 +67%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $358 −$355 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $407 +$93 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 79¢ $6 17m
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 79¢ $38 17m
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 79¢ $15 18m
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 79¢ $188 18m
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 79¢ $150 18m
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 79¢ $29 19m
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 79¢ $3 19m
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 79¢ $641 20m
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 79¢ $137 20m
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 79¢ $12 20m
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 79¢ $43 20m
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 79¢ $158 21m
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 79¢ $28 22m
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 79¢ $40 23m
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 79¢ $6 24m
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 79¢ $12 24m
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 79¢ $49 24m
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 79¢ $10 24m
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 79¢ $15 25m
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 91¢ $855 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 90¢ $57 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 95¢ $2,325 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 95¢ $525 2h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 66¢ $653 2h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 66¢ $7 2h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Scotland O/U 0.5 SELL Under 75¢ $656 3h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Scotland O/U 0.5 SELL Under 75¢ $1 3h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Scotland O/U 0.5 SELL Under 75¢ $51 3h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Scotland O/U 0.5 SELL Under 75¢ $15 3h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Scotland O/U 0.5 SELL Under 75¢ $25 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,689.99 · official $1,684.99 (match) · 3500 history records