Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T09:54:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1D 0x1d4a…25eb crypto 37 markets active 1h ago coverage 618d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$962 (-11%) realized −$962 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate97%33W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$238per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$2,501now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 64% −$964
crypto 36% +$1
tech 0% $0
other 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 4 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 34 -0.3% -9.8% 97% 0% -23.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 0% -23.3%
10% -18.4% 0% -30.7%
15% -26.3% 0% -37.4%
20% -33.5% 0% -43.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 70% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$966 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

618d coverage
Net worth$2,501
Realized−$962
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses33 / 1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)34 / 37
History coverage618d
Avg bet$238
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 24? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,054 $1,053 −$1 (-0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 24? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $1,036 $1,035 −$1 (-0%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 24? No 100¢ 100¢ $411 $412 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ethereum dip to $400 in March? Apr 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in March? Apr 03 $12 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? Apr 03 $15 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Apr 03 $16 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in February? Mar 04 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in February? Mar 04 $10 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? Mar 04 $28 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 7 to October 14, 2025? Feb 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 7 to October 14, 2025? Feb 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 7 to October 14, 2025? Feb 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the most valuable company on October 31? Feb 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will Google be the most valuable company on October 31? Feb 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will Mistral AI have the top AI model on October 31? Feb 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will Moonshot have the top AI model on October 31? Feb 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will Oracle be the most valuable company on October 31? Feb 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will Z.ai have the top AI model on October 31? Feb 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will Other be the most valuable company on October 31? Feb 18 $2 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the second best AI model on October 31? Feb 18 $2 $0 +0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model on October 31? Feb 18 $2 $0 +0%
Will Mistral AI have the best AI model on October 31? Feb 18 $2 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft have the second best AI model on October 31? Feb 18 $2 $0 +0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model on October 31? Feb 18 $2 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft have the best AI model on October 31? Feb 18 $3 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in October? Feb 18 $3 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $2000 in October? Feb 18 $3 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in October? Feb 18 $5 $0 +1%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Feb 18 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in October? Feb 18 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $4,500.00 by March 31? Apr 02 $221 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by March 31? Apr 02 $346 +$1 +0%
Will Alexander Khabnyak win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? Jan 29 $100 $0 +0%
Will Oleg Gaidukevich win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? Jan 29 $100 $0 +0%
Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? Jan 29 $365 +$2 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 26 $5,032 −$966 -19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $411 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $1,054 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,036 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $400 in March? BUY No 100¢ $5 111d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $15 111d
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $12 111d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $16 111d
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in February? BUY No 99¢ $10 125d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $10 125d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $28 125d
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in October? BUY No 100¢ $6 253d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in October? BUY No 99¢ $3 253d
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in October? BUY No 99¢ $5 253d
Will Ethereum dip to $2000 in October? BUY No 99¢ $3 253d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $5 253d
Will Z.ai have the top AI model on October 31? BUY No 100¢ $1 253d
Will Mistral AI have the top AI model on October 31? BUY No 100¢ $1 253d
Will Moonshot have the top AI model on October 31? BUY No 100¢ $1 253d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 7 to October 14, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $1 253d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 7 to October 14, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $1 253d
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 7 to October 14, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $1 253d
Will Google be the most valuable company on October 31? BUY No 100¢ $1 253d
Will Other be the most valuable company on October 31? BUY No 100¢ $2 253d
Will Amazon be the most valuable company on October 31? BUY No 100¢ $1 253d
Will Oracle be the most valuable company on October 31? BUY No 100¢ $1 253d
Will Microsoft have the best AI model on October 31? BUY No 100¢ $3 253d
Will Mistral AI have the best AI model on October 31? BUY No 100¢ $2 253d
Will Z.ai have the best AI model on October 31? BUY No 100¢ $2 253d
Will Moonshot have the best AI model on October 31? BUY No 100¢ $2 253d
Will Meta have the second best AI model on October 31? BUY No 100¢ $2 253d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,500.57 · official $2,500.57 (match) · 72 history records