Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:21:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1D 0x1d4b…e708 crypto 60 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$205 (+6%) realized +$215 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate37%19W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day49.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$100now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$142
other 3% −$32
sports 2% +$75
world 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)+4.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 +15.9% +4.9% 37% 29% -12.2%
≤30d 52 +15.9% +4.9% 37% 29% -12.2%
≤90d 52 +15.9% +4.9% 37% 29% -12.2%
all 52 +15.9% +4.9% 37% 29% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover49.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +4.9% 29% -12.2%
10% ← realistic here -5.2% 23% -20.6%
15% -14.3% 19% -28.3%
20% -22.7% 17% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +48% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$22 · ×1.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$100
Realized+$215
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses19 / 33
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions8
Markets (closed)52 / 60
History coverage4d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day49.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $40 $41 +$1 (+1%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-6%)
DR Congo to score first vs. Portugal? Yes 19¢ 17¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-21%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-28%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? No 1¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$4 (-90%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 17 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 17 $204 −$118 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 17 $201 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $170 +$17 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 17 $156 +$30 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 17 $57 −$55 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $232 −$70 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 17 $57 −$5 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 17 $207 −$8 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $87 +$10 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 17 $87 +$22 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 17 $31 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $52 −$10 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 17 $119 +$6 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 17 $82 −$6 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $81 +$34 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 17 $82 −$18 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 17 $78 −$17 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 17 $57 −$14 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 17 $58 +$43 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $54 +$18 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 17 $14 −$13 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $130 +$76 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 17 $103 −$13 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $52 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 17 $104 −$12 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 17 $95 −$49 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $41 +$42 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $52 −$11 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 17 $16 +$40 +253%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $15 −$14 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $47 −$45 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 17 $37 +$90 +244%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 16 $77 +$56 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$22 +86%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$15 +291%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$91 +1770%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $31 2m
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $26 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $26 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $5 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $5 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $25 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $25 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $26 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $25 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $25 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $25 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $25 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $26 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $5 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $26 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $26 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $26 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $26 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $26 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $26 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $26 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $5 37m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.92 · official $99.92 (match) · 229 history records