Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T09:53:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1D 0x1d4b…50c5 weather 2437 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 4d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (716 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2,764 (-31%) realized −$2,774 · open +$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate85%439W / 76L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day715.5pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$242now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% −$75
other 8% +$45
weather 0% +$12
crypto 0% $0
politics 0% +$3
world 0% +$2
tech 0% +$1
culture 0% $0
finance 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (716 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)+20.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 515 +33.3% +20.6% 85% 17% -9.9%
≤30d 515 +33.3% +20.6% 85% 17% -9.9%
≤90d 515 +33.3% +20.6% 85% 17% -9.9%
all 515 +33.3% +20.6% 85% 17% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover715.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +20.6% 17% -9.9%
10% ← realistic here +9.0% 14% -18.5%
15% -1.5% 12% -26.4%
20% -11.2% 10% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +33% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +43% → late +23% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$242
Realized−$2,774
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses439 / 76
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions499
Markets (closed)515 / 2437
History coverage4d ⚠
Avg bet$4
Trades / day715.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 499 History 515 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ITF Zagreb: Oleg Prihodko vs Dimitris Sakellaridis Oleg Prihodko 98¢ 100¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+2%)
ITF Slovenska Bistrica: Lucio Ratti vs Vincent Dullinger Lucio Ratti 98¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
ITF Monastir: Matilde Mariani vs Lenka Munzarova Lenka Munzarova 98¢ 98¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
ITF Monastir: Lourdes Ayala vs Karla Bartel Karla Bartel 98¢ 98¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
ITF Kamen: Anastasiia Firman vs Eva Marie Voracek Eva Marie Voracek 99¢ 74¢ $30 $23 −$7 (-25%)
ITF Brussels: Marvin Moeller vs Tom Zeuch Marvin Moeller 99¢ 71¢ $30 $21 −$9 (-28%)
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Jelena Ostapenko Jelena Ostapenko 55¢ 62¢ $13 $14 +$2 (+12%)
ITF Alkmaar: Fons Van Sambeek vs Pieter De Lange Pieter De Lange 98¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Tian Jialin vs Dusica Popovski Tian Jialin 99¢ 82¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-17%)
Will Enzo Fernandez join Paris Saint-Germain? Yes 1¢ 48¢ $0 $2 +$2 (+5205%)
Will Eduardo Camavinga join Arsenal? Yes 1¢ 48¢ $0 $2 +$2 (+4670%)
Will Myles Garrett be on the cover of Madden NFL 27? Yes 1¢ 42¢ $0 $2 +$2 (+6842%)
Will Eduardo Camavinga join Bayern Munich? Yes 3¢ 40¢ $0 $2 +$2 (+1232%)
Will Julián Álvarez win the Bronze Boot at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 34¢ $0 $2 +$2 (+1595%)
Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 22 - 28? Yes 1¢ 33¢ $0 $2 +$2 (+3180%)
Will Robert Lewandowski join Borussia Dortmund? Yes 1¢ 30¢ $0 $2 +$1 (+2940%)
Will USD be between 1.7M and 1.8M Iranian rials on June 30? Yes 2¢ 24¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+1115%)
Will Marine Tondelier advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? Yes 0¢ 24¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+5912%)
Will Nico O'Reilly win the Young Player Award at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 8¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+449%)
Will Austin Reaves play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27? Yes 1¢ 15¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+1425%)
Will Cape Verde be the furthest advancing CAF nation at the World Cup? Yes 1¢ 7¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+393%)
Will Audi Revolut get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Yes 1¢ 15¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+1719%)
Will Patrick Mahomes be on the cover of Madden NFL 27? Yes 1¢ 13¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+1743%)
Will Uzbekistan concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 1¢ 12¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+1550%)
Will Clémentine Autain advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? Yes 1¢ 11¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+1045%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ITF Kamen: Valentina Ivanov vs Mara Guth Jun 26 $30 +$1 +3%
ITF Galati: Sara Victoria Balan vs Allegra Korpanec Davies Jun 26 $30 $0 +1%
ITF Galati: Irina Fetecau vs Giulia Safina Popa Jun 26 $30 +$1 +2%
ITF Taipei: Hikaru Sato vs Aishi Das Jun 26 $30 +$1 +3%
ITF Kayseri: Dimitris Azoidis vs Keshav Chopra Jun 26 $30 $0 +1%
ITF Kayseri: Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine vs Kerem Yilmaz Jun 26 $30 +$1 +2%
ITF Alkmaar: Amelie Van Impe vs Margaux Maquet Jun 26 $30 $0 +1%
ITF Taipei: Chia Yi Tsao vs Gyeong Seo Lee Jun 26 $30 +$1 +2%
ITF Kamen: Victoria Pohle vs Kailey Evans Jun 26 $30 $0 +1%
ITF Alkmaar: Jesse De Jager vs Alexander Maarten Sander Jong Jun 26 $30 $0 +1%
ITF Alkmaar: Marc Majdandzic vs Ryo Tabata Jun 26 $5 $0 +1%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Mia Horvit vs Nina Radovanovic Jun 26 $5 $0 +1%
ITF Maanshan: Meiqi Guo vs Jing-Jing Lu Jun 26 $30 $0 +1%
ITF Maanshan: Jiaqi Wang vs Chenting Zhu Jun 26 $30 +$1 +2%
ITF Wuning: Kuan-Yi Lee vs Ye Chen Jun 26 $30 +$1 +2%
ITF Wuning: Matthew Dellavedova vs Yuta Kawahashi Jun 26 $30 $0 +1%
ITF Wuning: Fanming Meng vs Xirui Han Jun 26 $27 $0 +1%
ITF Wuning: Dong Ju Kim vs Max Purcell Jun 26 $30 +$1 +2%
ITF Maanshan: Eva Marie Desvignes vs Anna Snigireva Jun 26 $30 +$1 +2%
ITF Maanshan: Evialina Laskevich vs JiaYi Wang Jun 26 $30 +$1 +2%
Lee vs. Chen: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 26 $10 $0 +2%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $6 $0 +1%
Spread: Paraguay (-2.5) Jun 26 $30 +$1 +3%
ITF Sapporo: Miho Kuramochi vs Yui Ohwaki Jun 26 $30 +$1 +2%
ITF Sapporo: Ayumi Miyamoto vs Mayuka Aikawa Jun 26 $30 $0 +1%
Paraguay vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $10 $0 +1%
Türkiye to win the second half? Jun 26 $30 +$1 +4%
Spread: Türkiye (-2.5) Jun 26 $30 +$1 +3%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $30 +$1 +2%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $7 $0 +2%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $7 +$1 +8%
Australia to win the second half? Jun 26 $30 +$1 +3%
Paraguay leading at halftime? Jun 26 $30 +$1 +3%
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets Jun 26 $10 $0 +1%
Cuiabá EC vs. Londrina EC: O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $1 $0 +2%
ITF Sapporo: Shiho Tsujioka vs Sae Noguchi Jun 26 $30 $0 +1%
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) Jun 26 $10 $0 +2%
ITF Sapporo: Gaeul Jang vs Ying Zhang Jun 26 $30 +$1 +2%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) Jun 26 $3 $0 +2%
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 Jun 26 $10 $0 +1%
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5 Jun 26 $10 $0 +2%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $30 +$1 +4%
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 26 $10 $0 +3%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 26 $10 $0 +2%
Cuiabá EC vs. Londrina EC: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $29 +$1 +2%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $30 +$2 +5%
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5 Jun 26 $10 $0 +3%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals Jun 26 $10 $0 +2%
ITF Claremont: Alexandra Vagramov vs Sophie Suh Jun 26 $30 +$1 +2%
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 26 $10 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jo Hyeon-woo record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2m
ITF Monastir: Matilde Mariani vs Lenka Munzarova BUY Lenka Munzarova 98¢ $30 8m
ITF Kamen: Anastasiia Firman vs Eva Marie Voracek BUY Eva Marie Voracek 99¢ $30 15m
ITF Monastir: Lourdes Ayala vs Karla Bartel BUY Karla Bartel 98¢ $30 23m
ITF Alkmaar: Fons Van Sambeek vs Pieter De Lange BUY Pieter De Lange 98¢ $5 28m
ITF Kamen: Valentina Ivanov vs Mara Guth BUY Valentina Ivanov 97¢ $30 42m
ITF Zagreb: Oleg Prihodko vs Dimitris Sakellaridis BUY Oleg Prihodko 98¢ $30 53m
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Tian Jialin vs Dusica Popovski BUY Tian Jialin 99¢ $5 56m
ITF Galati: Irina Fetecau vs Giulia Safina Popa BUY Giulia Safina Popa 98¢ $30 57m
ITF Galati: Sara Victoria Balan vs Allegra Korpanec Davies BUY Sara Victoria Balan 99¢ $30 1h
ITF Kayseri: Dimitris Azoidis vs Keshav Chopra BUY Keshav Chopra 99¢ $30 1h
ITF Taipei: Hikaru Sato vs Aishi Das BUY Hikaru Sato 97¢ $30 1h
ITF Alkmaar: Amelie Van Impe vs Margaux Maquet BUY Margaux Maquet 99¢ $30 1h
ITF Slovenska Bistrica: Lucio Ratti vs Vincent Dullinger BUY Lucio Ratti 98¢ $30 1h
ITF Taipei: Chia Yi Tsao vs Gyeong Seo Lee BUY Gyeong Seo Lee 98¢ $30 1h
ITF Alkmaar: Marc Majdandzic vs Ryo Tabata BUY Marc Majdandzic 99¢ $5 1h
ITF Alkmaar: Jesse De Jager vs Alexander Maarten Sander Jong BUY Jesse De Jager 99¢ $30 1h
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Mia Horvit vs Nina Radovanovic BUY Nina Radovanovic 99¢ $5 1h
ITF Kayseri: Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine vs Kerem Yilmaz BUY Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine 98¢ $30 1h
ITF Kamen: Victoria Pohle vs Kailey Evans BUY Victoria Pohle 99¢ $30 1h
ITF Brussels: Marvin Moeller vs Tom Zeuch BUY Marvin Moeller 99¢ $30 2h
Will the price of Solana be between $110 and $120 on June 28? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 3h
ITF Maanshan: Jiaqi Wang vs Chenting Zhu BUY Jiaqi Wang 98¢ $30 3h
ITF Maanshan: Meiqi Guo vs Jing-Jing Lu BUY Meiqi Guo 99¢ $30 4h
ITF Wuning: Kuan-Yi Lee vs Ye Chen BUY Kuan-Yi Lee 98¢ $30 4h
ITF Wuning: Fanming Meng vs Xirui Han BUY Xirui Han 99¢ $27 4h
ITF Wuning: Matthew Dellavedova vs Yuta Kawahashi BUY Matthew Dellavedova 99¢ $30 5h
ITF Maanshan: Eva Marie Desvignes vs Anna Snigireva BUY Eva Marie Desvignes 98¢ $30 5h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on June 26? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 5h
ITF Wuning: Dong Ju Kim vs Max Purcell BUY Max Purcell 98¢ $30 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $241.50 · official $239.21 (match) · 3500 history records