Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:50:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1D 0x1d4d…fba6 sports 35 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$385 (-14%) realized −$460 · open +$75
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate34%10W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$78per market
Trades / day9.7pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$331now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$970
sports 47% +$689
world 3% −$70
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-27.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -19.8% -27.5% 34% 34% -25.2%
≤30d 29 -19.8% -27.5% 34% 34% -25.2%
≤90d 29 -19.8% -27.5% 34% 34% -25.2%
all 29 -19.8% -27.5% 34% 34% -25.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.5% 34% -25.2%
10% -34.4% 34% -32.4%
15% -40.7% 34% -38.9%
20% -46.5% 34% -44.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 69% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -39% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$117 vs −$84 · ×1.39 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$331
Realized−$460
Unrealized+$75
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses10 / 19
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions6
Markets (closed)29 / 35
History coverage4d
Avg bet$78
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 Over 55¢ 100¢ $97 $176 +$79 (+81%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Under 21¢ 56¢ $30 $79 +$49 (+165%)
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Yes 49¢ 48¢ $56 $55 −$1 (-1%)
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals Yes 37¢ 38¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+4%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Under 56¢ $33 $0 −$33 (-100%)
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score No 43¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $47 −$46 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $61 +$33 +55%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $56 +$42 +76%
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists Jun 17 $22 −$22 -98%
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals Jun 17 $22 −$22 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 +$56 +109%
Michael Olise: 1+ assists Jun 16 $26 +$57 +222%
Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals Jun 16 $26 −$25 -98%
Julián Álvarez: 1+ assists Jun 16 $25 −$25 -98%
Michael Olise: 1+ goals Jun 16 $26 −$25 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $41 +$48 +119%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $45 +$25 +55%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $45 +$63 +140%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $71 −$30 -42%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $71 −$70 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $71 −$70 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $76 −$75 -99%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $82 −$80 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $92 −$90 -98%
Netherlands to score first vs. Japan? Jun 14 $51 +$40 +79%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $81 −$16 -20%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $99 −$98 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $103 +$59 +57%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $272 +$750 +276%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $711 −$694 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 21¢ $31 38m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 56¢ $33 1h
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $37 1h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 43¢ $20 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $21 3h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 54¢ $47 6h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $50 8h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $57 8h
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 37¢ $20 19h
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists BUY Yes 35¢ $22 19h
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals BUY Yes 34¢ $22 19h
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 BUY Over 48¢ $61 19h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $56 20h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $61 20h
Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals BUY Yes 25¢ $26 35h
Julián Álvarez: 1+ assists BUY Yes 34¢ $25 35h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $51 35h
Michael Olise: 1+ assists BUY Yes 30¢ $26 35h
Michael Olise: 1+ goals BUY Yes 30¢ $26 35h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $45 44h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 1.5 BUY Over 45¢ $41 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $45 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 35¢ $41 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 37¢ $41 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $71 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $71 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $71 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $76 2d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $82 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $92 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $331.25 · official $325.96 · 48 history records