Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:15:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1D 0x1d4e…4acc other 16 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$282 (-25%) realized −$280 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -60% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -66% what you keep after slip
Net edge-66%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%3W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$72per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 45% −$212
other 43% −$384
crypto 12% +$126
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-63.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -59.8% -63.6% 20% 20% -51.4%
≤30d 15 -59.8% -63.6% 20% 20% -51.4%
≤90d 15 -59.8% -63.6% 20% 20% -51.4%
all 15 -59.8% -63.6% 20% 20% -51.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -63.6% 20% -51.4%
10% -67.1% 20% -56.1%
15% -70.3% 20% -60.3%
20% -73.2% 13% -64.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 90% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -48% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -60% · $-wt -48% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -72% → late -49% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$69 vs −$56 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$280
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses3 / 12
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)15 / 16
History coverage3d
Avg bet$72
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $140 +$56 +40%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 15 $15 +$22 +140%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $27 −$26 -98%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $92 −$69 -75%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $202 −$200 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -94%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $83 −$26 -31%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $132 +$129 +98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $58 −$11 -19%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $304 −$300 -99%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 3 Paraguay? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 18m
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 45¢ $196 40m
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $140 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 35¢ $103 1h
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) SELL Egypt 10¢ $37 1h
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) BUY Egypt 4¢ $15 3h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 15¢ $46 3h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $21 3h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 15¢ $27 4h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) SELL Spain 9¢ $23 4h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Over 68¢ $202 5h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 34¢ $92 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 23h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 23h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 79¢ $0 23h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 23h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 77¢ $262 23h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $132 23h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 18¢ $54 23h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $79 25h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 27h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 11¢ $11 41h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 93¢ $222 41h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 19¢ $47 43h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 52¢ $304 46h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 3 Paraguay? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.50 · official $0.50 (match) · 29 history records