Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:41:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1D 0x1d50…2563 politics 46 markets active 1h ago coverage 41d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$258 (-10%) realized −$176 · open −$82
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate39%7W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$660now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$251
7 days−$408
14 days−$269
30 days−$195
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 74% −$435
world 24% +$203
other 2% −$45
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-3.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -36.1% -42.2% 9% 9% -48.5%
≤30d 18 +6.3% -3.8% 39% 33% -19.8%
≤90d 18 +6.3% -3.8% 39% 33% -19.8%
all 18 +6.3% -3.8% 39% 33% -19.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.8% 33% -19.8%
10% -13.0% 33% -27.5%
15% -21.4% 17% -34.5%
20% -29.1% 17% -40.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 73% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +48% → late -36% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$40 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

41d coverage
Net worth$660
Realized−$176
Unrealized−$82
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses7 / 11
Open positions28
Markets (closed)18 / 46
History coverage41d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 28 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Alexandru Nazare be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 19¢ 23¢ $189 $227 +$38 (+20%)
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 15¢ 10¢ $196 $124 −$72 (-37%)
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31? No 36¢ 44¢ $73 $87 +$14 (+19%)
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a technocrat? No 47¢ 64¢ $60 $81 +$21 (+36%)
Will Dragoș Pîslaru be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $14 $47 +$33 (+235%)
Romanian parliament dissolved by July 31? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $26 $22 −$4 (-16%)
Will Dan Motreanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 15¢ 4¢ $70 $21 −$49 (-70%)
Will Dacian Cioloș be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+6%)
Will Dominic Fritz be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-4%)
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? Yes 11¢ 1¢ $50 $5 −$45 (-90%)
Will Vasile Dîncu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $6 $4 −$2 (-25%)
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+70%)
Will Sebastian Burduja be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-25%)
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-8%)
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-10%)
Will Alexandru Rafila be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-58%)
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+38%)
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-56%)
Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-36%)
Will Alexandru Rogobete be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-75%)
Will Șerban Matei be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-60%)
Will Ionuț Dumitru be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-45%)
Will Nir Barkat be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Will Anca Dragu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $4 $1 −$3 (-79%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Delia Velculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 16 $10 −$6 -57%
Will Cătălin Predoiu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 16 $114 −$64 -56%
Will Radu Burnete be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 16 $194 −$176 -91%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PSD? Jun 16 $71 −$38 -53%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PNL? Jun 16 $52 +$33 +63%
Will Lucian Isar be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 15 $4 −$1 -17%
Will Hunor Kelemen be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 14 $5 −$2 -38%
Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 14 $7 −$4 -50%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 11 $38 −$8 -22%
Will Eugen Tomac be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 11 $326 −$75 -23%
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 10 $125 −$67 -54%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be an Independent or a Technoc Jun 10 $91 −$4 -5%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 08 $196 +$15 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 05 $187 +$108 +58%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $51 +$15 +29%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 04 $7 +$2 +29%
Will Raluca Turcan be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 04 $1 +$4 +362%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $240 +$74 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 14¢ $117 1h
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 25¢ $34 21h
Will Delia Velculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL Yes 1¢ $4 21h
Will Cătălin Predoiu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL Yes 1¢ $12 21h
Will Radu Burnete be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL Yes 1¢ $18 21h
Will Alexandru Nazare be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 40¢ $46 25h
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PSD? SELL Yes 12¢ $34 26h
Will Dan Motreanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 28¢ $51 26h
Will Dan Motreanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 26h
Will Dan Motreanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 26h
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PNL? SELL Yes 27¢ $84 26h
Will Alexandru Nazare be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 40¢ $54 26h
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 16¢ $52 26h
Will Alexandru Nazare be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 35¢ $4 26h
Will Lucian Isar be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL Yes 0¢ $3 2d
Romanian parliament dissolved by July 31? BUY Yes 6¢ $27 3d
Will Hunor Kelemen be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL Yes 0¢ $3 3d
Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL Yes 0¢ $4 3d
Will Dan Motreanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL Yes 0¢ $9 3d
Will Dragoș Pîslaru be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 5d
Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 5d
Will Alexandru Rafila be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 5d
Will Vasile Dîncu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 5d
Will Dominic Fritz be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 5d
Will Emil Boc be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL No 21¢ $30 5d
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PSD? BUY Yes 24¢ $71 6d
Will Eugen Tomac be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL Yes 8¢ $19 6d
Will Alexandru Nazare be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 6d
Will Alexandru Nazare be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 19¢ $21 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $659.99 · official $662.76 (match) · 136 history records