Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T10:56:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
1D 0x1d54…6a78 other 124 markets active 2h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$831 (-1%) realized −$831 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate17%21W / 102L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$748per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$584now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$5
30 days−$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$771
politics 34% −$35
sports 16% −$39
economics 2% −$1
world 2% −$1
culture 0% −$1
tech 0% −$1
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.1% -9.4% 33% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 19 -0.1% -9.6% 16% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 59 -1.8% -11.1% 7% 0% -11.0%
all 123 -0.3% -9.8% 17% 12% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 12% -10.4%
10% -18.4% 12% -18.9%
15% -26.3% 11% -26.8%
20% -33.5% 9% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$939) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$17 · ×2.39 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$584
Realized−$831
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses21 / 102
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)123 / 124
History coverage132d
Avg bet$748
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 123 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $584 $584 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 27 $849 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 27 $1,637 −$2 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $570 +$3 +1%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 20 $424 −$1 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 20 $467 −$1 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 19 $998 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $467 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $1,228 −$1 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $846 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $855 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $1,677 −$2 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $848 −$1 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $891 −$1 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $761 −$1 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $853 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $3,941 −$4 -0%
Will XRP reach $1.80 in May? Jun 04 $40 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? Jun 04 $65 $0 +0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $622 −$1 -0%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-05-09? May 20 $913 −$913 -100%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 07 $816 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $2,399 −$3 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 27 $863 −$1 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 22 $274 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 21 $307 $0 -0%
Will Moonshot have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Con Apr 21 $304 −$1 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $912 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $1,032 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $2,989 −$3 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $2,169 −$2 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 18 $908 −$1 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $748 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $1,571 −$2 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $1,714 −$1 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 16 $1,387 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $1,952 −$2 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $892 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $705 −$1 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $1,712 −$2 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $874 −$1 -0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 13 $1,008 −$1 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 12 $844 −$1 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 12 $847 −$1 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 11 $753 $0 +0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 07 $1,503 −$2 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 05 $782 −$1 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 04 $2,064 −$2 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 04 $571 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 03 $531 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 03 $469 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $342 1h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $584 1h
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $342 4h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $435 4h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $436 8h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $484 29h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $485 32h
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $423 7d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $424 7d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $466 7d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $467 7d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $486 8d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $487 8d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $467 9d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $467 9d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $570 10d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $524 13d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $524 13d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $845 13d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $846 14d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $854 14d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $855 14d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $863 14d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $864 14d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $847 15d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $848 15d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $889 20d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $891 20d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $760 22d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $761 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $583.95 · official $583.95 (match) · 393 history records