Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:22:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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1D 0x1d57…8e0c sports 275 markets active 0h ago coverage 15d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 15d only
✗ bot/MM pace (210 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,406 (-16%) realized −$1,405 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate37%94W / 163L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day209.8pace
Fees−$118est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$268now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days−$123
14 days−$159
30 days−$75
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$76
other 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (210 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 162 -4.6% -13.6% 35% 15% -11.4%
≤30d 257 +0.3% -9.3% 37% 15% -10.3%
≤90d 257 +0.3% -9.3% 37% 15% -10.3%
all 257 +0.3% -9.3% 37% 15% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover209.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.3% 15% -10.3%
10% ← realistic here -18.0% 9% -18.9%
15% -25.9% 5% -26.7%
20% -33.2% 5% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
59% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
11.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.32 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$268
Realized−$1,405
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses94 / 163
Est. fees paid−$118
Open positions18
Markets (closed)257 / 275
History coverage15d ⚠
Avg bet$33
Trades / day209.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 257 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 Under 53¢ 52¢ $27 $26 −$0 (-2%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Atlanta Braves 57¢ 56¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 Over 47¢ 48¢ $19 $19 +$0 (+2%)
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) San Francisco Giants 61¢ 60¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-2%)
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Seattle Mariners 57¢ 56¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-1%)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Toronto Blue Jays 47¢ 44¢ $12 $11 −$1 (-6%)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox 53¢ 56¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+5%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves San Francisco Giants 43¢ 44¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+1%)
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Chicago White Sox 41¢ 40¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Atlanta Braves 39¢ 40¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+1%)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 Over 51¢ 60¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+17%)
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Milwaukee Brewers 58¢ 58¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Chicago White Sox 57¢ 57¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+0%)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 Under 48¢ 40¢ $10 $8 −$1 (-15%)
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5 Under 50¢ 50¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+0%)
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Baltimore Orioles 42¢ 44¢ $6 $7 +$0 (+4%)
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) New York Yankees 43¢ 42¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) Toronto Blue Jays 64¢ 64¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Cleveland Guardians 42¢ 42¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-0%)
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) Baltimore Orioles 61¢ 62¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 60¢ 60¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5 Under 57¢ 56¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5 Over 50¢ 50¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Milwaukee Brewers 39¢ 38¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) Seattle Mariners 40¢ 38¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito Jun 18 $5 $0 +4%
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Diane Parry Jun 18 $11 +$2 +17%
Brescia: Jazmin Ortenzi vs Elizara Yaneva Jun 18 $14 $0 -2%
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Taylor Fritz Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5) Jun 18 $36 +$4 +10%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 18 $97 +$12 +13%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5 Jun 18 $24 +$1 +4%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5 Jun 18 $35 $0 -1%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 Jun 18 $20 $0 +2%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 Jun 18 $10 $0 -0%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5 Jun 18 $5 +$5 +98%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-4.5) Jun 18 $16 +$4 +23%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) Jun 18 $13 −$3 -21%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 11.5 Jun 18 $5 +$5 +113%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5 Jun 18 $18 +$2 +11%
Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5) Jun 18 $1 +$1 +96%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 18 $48 −$3 -6%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 18 $26 −$11 -43%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5) Jun 18 $13 −$3 -25%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 18 $104 +$1 +1%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 18 $60 −$1 -1%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5) Jun 18 $11 −$1 -5%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 18 $220 −$3 -1%
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-3.5) Jun 18 $6 −$1 -22%
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-3.5) Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5 Jun 18 $106 $0 -0%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 10.5 Jun 18 $17 +$6 +34%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 18 $155 −$10 -6%
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) Jun 18 $26 −$1 -6%
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5) Jun 18 $32 +$2 +6%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 Jun 18 $56 $0 -0%
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) Jun 18 $25 $0 -0%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5 Jun 18 $10 $0 +4%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5 Jun 18 $5 +$5 +94%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5 Jun 18 $23 +$7 +33%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 Jun 18 $56 +$18 +32%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5) Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $10 $0 -0%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $13 +$2 +12%
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) Jun 17 $19 +$1 +5%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $41 −$1 -2%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Poznan: Maks Kasnikowski vs Jan Choinski Jun 17 $159 −$2 -1%
Baena vs. Travaglia: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 17 $11 +$2 +17%
Parma: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Stefano Travaglia Jun 17 $470 −$25 -5%
Royan: Daniel Jade vs Raphael Perot Jun 17 $96 −$1 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 52¢ $3 0m
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 56¢ $3 3m
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 56¢ $3 3m
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 52¢ $3 14m
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 53¢ $5 21m
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 51¢ $3 25m
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 47¢ $2 29m
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 47¢ $2 29m
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 52¢ $0 1h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Cleveland Guardians 41¢ $4 1h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 52¢ $2 1h
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) BUY San Francisco Giants 61¢ $3 1h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 48¢ $2 1h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 48¢ $2 1h
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) BUY Baltimore Orioles 61¢ $3 1h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 48¢ $7 1h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 52¢ $3 1h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 53¢ $3 1h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 54¢ $3 1h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 55¢ $3 1h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 57¢ $3 1h
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) BUY Toronto Blue Jays 64¢ $3 1h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 57¢ $3 1h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY Chicago White Sox 40¢ $2 1h
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) BUY Boston Red Sox 36¢ $2 1h
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) BUY Boston Red Sox 36¢ $2 1h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 56¢ $3 1h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 53¢ $3 2h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY Chicago White Sox 40¢ $2 2h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY San Francisco Giants 43¢ $6 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $268.33 · official $268.34 (match) · 3500 history records