Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:39:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1D 0x1d5c…55df world 182 markets active 1h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$6,492 (+3%) realized +$20,169 · open −$11,581
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate43%74W / 98L
Whale WR63%big bets
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$1,130per market
Trades / day28.2pace
Fees−$62est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$6,687now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$905
7 days+$2,373
14 days+$6,690
30 days+$5,008
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 86% +$20,790
finance 9% −$8,632
other 3% −$1,109
sports 2% −$2,357
politics 1% −$107
crypto 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-21.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -35.8% -41.9% 29% 16% -0.9%
≤30d 76 -29.8% -36.5% 34% 18% -2.0%
≤90d 151 -19.3% -27.0% 42% 25% -3.5%
all 172 -13.0% -21.3% 43% 27% +1.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.2 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.3% 27% +1.3%
10% -28.8% 17% -8.4%
15% ← realistic here -35.7% 10% -17.3%
20% -42.0% 8% -25.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt +12% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 63% (≥$787) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late -29% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
12.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$513 vs −$182 · ×2.82 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.13 per $1 lost it wins $2.13
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$6,687
Realized+$20,169
Unrealized−$11,581
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses74 / 98
Whale WR (big bets)63%
Est. fees paid−$62
Open positions10
Markets (closed)172 / 182
History coverage116d
Avg bet$1,130
Trades / day28.2
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 172 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Yes 14¢ 8¢ $3,424 $2,099 −$1,324 (-39%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 84¢ 19¢ $5,455 $1,202 −$4,253 (-78%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? No 20¢ 10¢ $1,690 $826 −$864 (-51%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? Yes 61¢ 8¢ $4,125 $571 −$3,554 (-86%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 29¢ 8¢ $2,095 $543 −$1,552 (-74%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $494 $521 +$27 (+6%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 77¢ 72¢ $500 $471 −$29 (-6%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 80¢ 78¢ $406 $394 −$12 (-3%)
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $50 $33 −$17 (-34%)
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $30 $26 −$4 (-13%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Up 58¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in June? No 14¢ 0¢ $346 $0 −$346 (-100%)
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $89 on May 28? Yes 87¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in June? No 14¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $68 −$38 -55%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? Jun 14 $1,549 −$695 -45%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $84 on June 15? Jun 14 $25 −$16 -63%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? Jun 14 $337 −$147 -44%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $85 on June 15? Jun 14 $15 −$9 -61%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $83 on June 15? Jun 14 $10 +$2 +16%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? Jun 14 $28 +$2 +6%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in June? Jun 13 $10 −$4 -38%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? Jun 12 $13,051 +$6,740 +52%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? Jun 12 $4,078 −$1,141 -28%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in June? Jun 12 $21 −$20 -97%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $337 +$7 +2%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? Jun 11 $513 −$78 -15%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $90 on June 11? Jun 11 $84 −$82 -97%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $92 on June 11? Jun 11 $12 −$4 -34%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $91 on June 11? Jun 11 $24 −$24 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $89 on June 11? Jun 11 $114 −$113 -99%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $88 on June 11? Jun 11 $270 −$269 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $85 on June 10? Jun 11 $100 +$8 +8%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $84 on June 10? Jun 10 $200 +$6 +3%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $86 on June 10? Jun 10 $201 +$25 +12%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $87 on June 10? Jun 10 $178 +$54 +30%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $88 on June 10? Jun 10 $134 −$28 -21%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $90 on June 10? Jun 10 $101 −$3 -3%
Will Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by December 31? Jun 10 $157 +$7 +4%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $102 −$37 -36%
Will Ukraine re-enter Kamianske by June 30? Jun 10 $622 −$103 -17%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $89 on June 10? Jun 10 $314 −$111 -35%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June? Jun 10 $775 −$400 -52%
Will Ukraine re-enter Uspenivka by December 31? Jun 09 $2 $0 -3%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $91 on June 8? Jun 08 $202 +$37 +18%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $89 on June 8? Jun 08 $5 +$5 +97%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $96 on June 8? Jun 08 $31 −$31 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $97 on June 8? Jun 08 $31 −$31 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $95 on June 8? Jun 08 $306 −$303 -99%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $94 on June 8? Jun 08 $416 −$410 -98%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $92 on June 8? Jun 08 $312 −$237 -76%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $93 on June 8? Jun 08 $203 −$184 -91%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $1,121 +$81 +7%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $93 on June 5? Jun 06 $204 −$204 -100%
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Jun 06 $1,656 −$32 -2%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $92 on June 5? Jun 05 $101 −$101 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $122 −$121 -99%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in June? Jun 05 $358 −$346 -97%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $96 on June 4? Jun 04 $41 −$41 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $97 on June 4? Jun 04 $21 −$20 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $92 on June 4? Jun 04 $100 −$39 -39%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $94 on June 4? Jun 04 $248 −$247 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $95 on June 4? Jun 04 $159 −$156 -98%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $93 on June 4? Jun 04 $422 −$345 -82%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 9¢ $4 1h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $4 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 9¢ $5 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 8¢ $206 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? SELL No 6¢ $54 1h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $84 on June 15? SELL Yes 9¢ $9 2h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? SELL Yes 3¢ $7 2h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $85 on June 15? SELL Yes 6¢ $6 2h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $83 on June 15? SELL Yes 12¢ $12 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 8¢ $27 2h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? SELL Yes 27¢ $30 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 7¢ $100 2h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $83 on June 15? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 3h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $85 on June 15? BUY Yes 15¢ $13 3h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $84 on June 15? BUY Yes 25¢ $18 3h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $84 on June 15? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 3h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $83 on June 15? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 3h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $84 on June 15? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 3h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $85 on June 15? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 3h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $84 on June 15? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 4h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? SELL No 11¢ $11 7h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? SELL No 11¢ $1 9h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? SELL No 11¢ $9 10h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? SELL No 11¢ $0 11h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? SELL No 11¢ $203 14h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $85 on June 15? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 20h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $84 on June 15? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 20h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $35 26h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? BUY Yes 24¢ $28 26h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $28 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,686.74 · official $6,635.03 (match) · 3500 history records