Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T05:01:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1D
0x1d5e…faef
other · 123 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$1,254 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,253 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,540
Realized−$1,253
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses25 / 97
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)122 / 123
History coverage132d
Avg bet$1,058
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%
Chart Positions 1 History 122 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$15
14 days−$20
30 days−$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,541 $1,540 −$1 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $2,730 −$3 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $3,737 −$5 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $1,866 −$3 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $1,454 −$2 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $1,247 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $1,350 −$2 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $1,233 −$2 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $1,046 −$2 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $2,307 −$3 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? Jun 02 $502 +$2 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? Jun 02 $408 +$3 +1%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $638 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $620 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $1,443 −$2 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $458 −$1 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $764 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $1,789 −$2 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $991 −$2 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 23 $1,059 −$1 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $1,567 −$2 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 07 $1,541 −$2 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $1,538 −$2 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $2,447 −$3 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $1,544 −$2 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $2,743 −$3 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $3,287 −$4 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 01 $2,574 −$3 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 29 $1,385 −$2 -0%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 Apr 29 $893 +$2 +0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 27 $689 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $3,972 −$4 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $1,752 −$2 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $3,059 −$3 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $1,523 −$2 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $1,432 −$1 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $1,450 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $2,196 −$2 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $1,531 −$2 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $1,610 −$2 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $1,543 −$2 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $1,312 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $1,137 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $1,053 −$1 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 13 $1,502 −$2 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $1,280 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 12 $1,153 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 12 $245 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 11 $2,384 −$5 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 10 $251 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 09 $1,156 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 42% −$204
politics 41% −$65
sports 11% −$968
economics 2% $0
culture 1% −$2
crypto 1% −$2
tech 1% −$1
world 0% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,541 1h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,433 1h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,435 3h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,438 12h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,440 20h
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,345 5d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,347 5d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,452 5d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,454 6d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,245 6d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,247 7d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,348 9d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,350 9d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,231 9d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,233 9d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,044 9d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,046 10d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,299 10d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,301 10d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $637 12d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $638 12d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $518 15d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $519 15d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $620 15d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $620 15d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $484 16d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $485 16d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $457 17d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $458 17d
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? BUY No 99¢ $408 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 19 -0.1% -9.6% 11% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 79 -11.3% -19.8% 6% 1% -11.0%
all 122 +1.1% -8.5% 20% 9% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 9% -10.4%
10% -17.3% 8% -19.0%
15% -25.3% 7% -26.8%
20% -32.6% 6% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,540.05 · official $1,540.05 (match) · 391 history records