Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T11:50:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
1D 0x1d5f…634d other 230 markets active 0h ago coverage 55d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 55d only
✗ bot/MM pace (59 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$34,349 (+14%) realized +$26,382 · open +$7,967
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate61%97W / 61L
Whale WR82%big bets
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$1,049per market
Trades / day58.8pace
Fees−$114est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$98,895now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$433
7 days+$2,885
14 days+$15,129
30 days+$21,145
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% +$13,229
economics 27% +$14,653
politics 13% +$795
crypto 10% +$2,892
finance 5% +$6,022
sports 4% +$2,698
world 3% +$514
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (59 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-0.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 +1.5% -8.1% 74% 54% -1.9%
≤30d 101 -0.3% -9.8% 61% 49% +8.2%
≤90d 158 +10.1% -0.4% 61% 47% +11.2%
all 158 +10.1% -0.4% 61% 47% +11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover58.8 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -0.4% 47% +11.2%
10% -9.9% 29% +0.5%
15% ← realistic here -18.6% 22% -9.2%
20% -26.6% 18% -18.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 82% (≥$900) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +22% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
10.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$460 vs −$212 · ×2.17 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.45 per $1 lost it wins $3.45
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage
Net worth$98,895
Realized+$26,382
Unrealized+$7,967
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses97 / 61
Whale WR (big bets)82%
Est. fees paid−$114
Open positions81
Markets (closed)158 / 230
History coverage55d ⚠
Avg bet$1,049
Trades / day58.8
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 81 History 158 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 80¢ 81¢ $13,642 $13,853 +$212 (+2%)
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 97¢ 98¢ $8,382 $8,441 +$59 (+1%)
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 94¢ 95¢ $6,730 $6,807 +$77 (+1%)
Will the ECB announce no change at the July 2026 meeting? Yes 85¢ 94¢ $5,184 $5,727 +$543 (+10%)
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? No 92¢ 99¢ $4,613 $4,978 +$365 (+8%)
Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026? No 74¢ 88¢ $3,700 $4,382 +$682 (+18%)
Will the Bank of Japan announce no change at the September 2026 meeting? Yes 64¢ 78¢ $3,531 $4,336 +$804 (+23%)
Bank of England rate hike in 2026? No 44¢ 80¢ $1,964 $3,584 +$1,620 (+82%)
Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the July decision? Yes 78¢ 90¢ $2,436 $2,844 +$408 (+17%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 91¢ 88¢ $2,730 $2,625 −$105 (-4%)
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 94¢ 94¢ $2,340 $2,341 +$1 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? No 89¢ 94¢ $2,017 $2,144 +$126 (+6%)
Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the July interest rate announcement? Yes 88¢ 96¢ $1,740 $1,902 +$162 (+9%)
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the July 2026 meeting? No 85¢ 96¢ $1,662 $1,881 +$219 (+13%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? Yes 73¢ 62¢ $2,054 $1,762 −$293 (-14%)
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after July 2026 meeting? Yes 86¢ 96¢ $1,524 $1,703 +$179 (+12%)
No change in Bank of Mexico’s interest rates after August 2026 meeting? Yes 74¢ 84¢ $1,434 $1,635 +$201 (+14%)
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026? No 62¢ 80¢ $1,238 $1,615 +$377 (+30%)
Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2026 meeting? No 84¢ 96¢ $1,215 $1,396 +$181 (+15%)
Will inflation reach more than 6% in 2026? No 85¢ 94¢ $1,200 $1,336 +$135 (+11%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $45 by end of June? No 80¢ 99¢ $783 $979 +$196 (+25%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June? No 90¢ 92¢ $948 $972 +$24 (+3%)
Will the Central Bank of Colombia announce an increase at the June meeting? Yes 84¢ 92¢ $842 $928 +$86 (+10%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 22-28? No 78¢ 94¢ $744 $896 +$152 (+20%)
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? No 75¢ 88¢ $749 $885 +$136 (+18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 32 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Central Bank of Colombia announce an increase at the April me Jun 28 $938 −$938 -100%
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia make no change to the target for th Jun 28 $102 −$221 -217%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $975 +$144 +15%
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $234 +$66 +28%
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $192 +$108 +56%
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 49.0 and 51.9 in June? Jun 26 $1,608 +$371 +23%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? Jun 26 $420 +$78 +19%
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 46.0 and 48.9 in June? Jun 26 $197 −$41 -21%
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $159 +$141 +89%
Will the Bank of Mexico announce no change at the June meeting? Jun 25 $2,329 +$396 +17%
Will the Bank of Mexico announce a decrease at the June meeting? Jun 25 $15 +$3 +17%
Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be below -4% in May? Jun 25 $2,072 +$936 +45%
Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be between 2% and 4% in May? Jun 25 $12 +$1 +8%
Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be between 0% and 2% in May? Jun 25 $330 +$28 +9%
Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be between -4% and -2% in May? Jun 25 $285 −$253 -89%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 25 $1,464 +$130 +9%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 25 $1,845 −$653 -35%
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by June 30? Jun 25 $1,159 +$390 +34%
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $213 +$87 +41%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Jun 24 $720 +$76 +11%
Will the Bank of Korea make no change to the base rate after the July Jun 24 $62 +$30 +49%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? Jun 24 $890 −$412 -46%
Will the South African Reserve Bank hike by 25 bps at the July 2026 me Jun 24 $35 −$2 -6%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 23 $1,762 +$232 +13%
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $186 −$118 -64%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 22-28? Jun 23 $566 −$566 -100%
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $213 +$87 +41%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? Jun 23 $132 +$11 +8%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 22-28? Jun 22 $112 −$112 -100%
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Jun 22 $2,147 +$269 +12%
Starmer out by October 31, 2026? Jun 22 $2,922 +$250 +9%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Jun 22 $9,506 +$1,644 +17%
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? Jun 22 $13 +$1 +10%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 15-21? Jun 22 $430 +$70 +16%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 15-21? Jun 22 $470 +$30 +6%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 15-21? Jun 22 $215 +$285 +133%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 June 15-21? Jun 22 $470 +$30 +6%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 June 15-21? Jun 22 $860 +$140 +16%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by 9% or more? Jun 21 $209 +$166 +80%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $201 +$99 +49%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $102 −$33 -33%
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 43.0 and 45.9 in June? Jun 19 $50 −$42 -84%
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the June Meeting? Jun 19 $1,797 +$591 +33%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $5,879 +$581 +10%
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $9,517 +$483 +5%
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after June 2026 meeting? Jun 18 $11,523 +$6,726 +58%
Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2026 mee Jun 18 $1,401 +$162 +12%
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meetin Jun 18 $2,659 +$1,966 +74%
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting? Jun 17 $76 −$75 -100%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $35 −$34 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meetin BUY Yes 94¢ $68 4m
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 b BUY Yes 70¢ $3 48m
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 b BUY Yes 70¢ $13 1h
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 b BUY Yes 70¢ $18 2h
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 b BUY Yes 70¢ $18 2h
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 b BUY Yes 70¢ $18 2h
Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rat BUY Yes 24¢ $21 4h
Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rat BUY Yes 24¢ $3 4h
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in June? BUY Yes 51¢ $26 7h
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in June? BUY Yes 51¢ $8 7h
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 22-28? SELL No 91¢ $4 13h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL No 71¢ $347 13h
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 22-28? SELL No 91¢ $17 13h
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 22-28? SELL No 91¢ $18 13h
No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the August BUY Yes 86¢ $39 13h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 86¢ $172 14h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 87¢ $803 14h
Will the Central Bank of Colombia announce an increase at the June mee SELL Yes 92¢ $29 14h
Will annual inflation be 3.7% in June? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 15h
Will the Central Bank of Colombia announce an increase at the June mee SELL Yes 92¢ $200 15h
Will annual inflation be 3.7% in June? BUY Yes 30¢ $9 15h
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meetin BUY Yes 95¢ $189 15h
Will annual inflation be 3.7% in June? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 15h
Will annual inflation be 3.7% in June? BUY Yes 30¢ $19 15h
No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the August BUY Yes 86¢ $9 18h
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in June? BUY Yes 51¢ $69 20h
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in June? BUY Yes 51¢ $2 21h
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in June? BUY Yes 51¢ $46 21h
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in June? BUY Yes 51¢ $55 21h
Will the South African Reserve Bank hold at the July 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $98,894.96 · official $98,930.56 (match) · 3500 history records