Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:25:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1D 0x1d5f…6a6c other 108 markets active 1h ago coverage 151d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$506 (-17%) realized −$433 · open −$73
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate37%38W / 65L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit35%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$174
14 days−$285
30 days−$483
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$179
sports 35% −$224
politics 15% −$177
world 0% −$4
culture 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-3.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -46.0% -51.1% 38% 38% -30.3%
≤30d 26 +0.4% -9.2% 31% 31% -33.8%
≤90d 67 +5.7% -4.4% 36% 34% -27.9%
all 103 +6.9% -3.2% 37% 34% -26.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.2% 34% -26.1%
10% -12.5% 33% -33.1%
15% -21.0% 32% -39.6%
20% -28.7% 27% -45.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$24 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

151d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$433
Unrealized−$73
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses38 / 65
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions5
Markets (closed)103 / 108
History coverage151d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit35%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 103 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-32%)
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+20%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $70 $1 −$69 (-99%)
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-48%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 40 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $201 −$200 -99%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $87 −$85 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $202 +$115 +57%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H Moneyline Jun 14 $20 +$10 +48%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $186 +$51 +27%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $101 −$100 -99%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $101 +$87 +86%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Czechia leading at halftime? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will South Africa win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $21 −$20 -97%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 11 $51 −$9 -18%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $102 +$111 +109%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $113 −$110 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-03? Jun 04 $21 +$241 +1171%
Will Poland win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $30 −$30 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-04? Jun 03 $30 −$30 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 03 $152 −$150 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $133 −$130 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic May 29 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 29 $10 +$14 +138%
Will West Ham be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2 May 28 $3 +$3 +92%
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-04-22? Apr 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? Apr 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Hawks vs. Knicks Apr 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-15? Apr 21 $3 +$7 +226%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 21 $3 +$7 +226%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? Apr 15 $4 +$5 +134%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-04-13? Apr 14 $7 +$34 +484%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 13 $16 −$16 -98%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-12? Apr 13 $5 +$6 +114%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-04-12? Apr 13 $5 +$8 +165%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-11? Apr 12 $20 +$7 +36%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Joao Fonseca vs Arthur Rinderknech Apr 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Bucks Apr 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-04-05? Apr 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-03-15? Apr 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-03-18? Apr 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Apr 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Upper Austria Ladies Linz: Jelena Ostapenko vs Alexandra Eala Apr 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Celtics vs. Grizzlies Apr 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Udinese Calcio win on 2026-04-06? Apr 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Thunder vs. Nuggets Apr 10 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 10 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Yi Wei vs. Fabiano Caruana end in a draw? Apr 10 $10 +$6 +62%
Will Javokhir Sindarov vs. Praggnanandhaa R end in a draw? Apr 09 $10 −$10 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $61 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $201 3d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 3d
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 5d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $51 6d
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $51 6d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $317 6d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $35 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 35¢ $10 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H Moneyline BUY Spurs 67¢ $20 6d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $202 6d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 85¢ $15 7d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 77¢ $171 7d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 7d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 25¢ $41 8d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $101 8d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 8d
Czechia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 8d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $101 8d
Will South Africa win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $21 9d
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees SELL Boston Red Sox 47¢ $41 9d
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY Boston Red Sox 56¢ $51 11d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 47¢ $102 11d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Flavio Cobolli 24¢ $51 13d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Flavio Cobolli 24¢ $61 13d
Will Poland win on 2026-06-03? BUY Yes 46¢ $30 17d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-04? BUY Yes 48¢ $30 17d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-03? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 17d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $152 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.83 · official $9.00 (match) · 190 history records