Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T08:11:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1D
0x1d60…453d
sports · 1285 markets active 9h ago
2.5score
+$21,396 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$25,284 · open −$4,237
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$28,371
Realized+$25,284
Unrealized−$4,237
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses784 / 527
Whale WR (big bets)66%
Est. fees paid−$10,742
Open positions124
Markets (closed)1311 / 1285
Avg bet$755
Trades / day83.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%
Chart Positions 124 History 1311 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8,818
7 days+$21,430
14 days+$10,700
30 days+$6,237
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 30¢ 81¢ $1,429 $3,928 +$2,499 (+175%)
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 28¢ 19¢ $3,996 $2,704 −$1,292 (-32%)
Knicks vs. Spurs Knicks 36¢ 36¢ $2,000 $1,972 −$28 (-1%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 82¢ 88¢ $1,000 $1,079 +$79 (+8%)
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? No 77¢ 81¢ $1,000 $1,061 +$61 (+6%)
Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be between 1.75T and 2.00T? Yes 81¢ 97¢ $800 $963 +$163 (+20%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.35T by June 30? No 70¢ 92¢ $600 $784 +$184 (+31%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 79¢ 88¢ $700 $776 +$76 (+11%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? No 62¢ 58¢ $730 $687 −$43 (-6%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? No 78¢ 48¢ $1,000 $612 −$388 (-39%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 63¢ 96¢ $400 $608 +$208 (+52%)
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? No 80¢ 48¢ $1,000 $606 −$394 (-39%)
Fed rate hike in 2026? Yes 33¢ 48¢ $400 $588 +$188 (+47%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 58¢ 81¢ $400 $564 +$164 (+41%)
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 66¢ 60¢ $600 $550 −$50 (-8%)
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? No 67¢ 67¢ $500 $500 −$0 (-0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 47¢ 45¢ $500 $479 −$21 (-4%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? No 47¢ 44¢ $500 $465 −$35 (-7%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 79¢ 90¢ $387 $443 +$56 (+15%)
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 70¢ 61¢ $500 $437 −$63 (-13%)
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Yes 30¢ 49¢ $200 $333 +$133 (+66%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Yes 80¢ 66¢ $400 $332 −$68 (-17%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Yes 71¢ 76¢ $300 $323 +$23 (+8%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Yes 84¢ 90¢ $300 $322 +$22 (+7%)
Kash Patel out by December 31? No 42¢ 46¢ $300 $322 +$22 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
RC Celta de Vigo vs. Elche CF: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Jeju SK FC win on 2026-05-09? Jun 12 $300 −$300 -100%
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait o Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Miami Marlins Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in April Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
FC Ryūkyū vs. Kagoshima United FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-09? Jun 12 $400 −$400 -100%
Will AC Reggiana 1919 win on 2026-05-08? Jun 12 $100 −$100 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5 Jun 12 $100 −$100 -100%
Will FC Gifu win on 2026-05-09? Jun 12 $300 −$300 -100%
Will ZED FC win on 2026-05-07? Jun 12 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Drake officially release Iceman by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $50 −$50 -100%
Will AC Goianiense win on 2026-05-09? Jun 12 $100 −$100 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 Jun 12 $400 −$400 -100%
Everton FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 6.5 Jun 12 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Drake officially release Iceman by May 31, 2026? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 30, Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will CDP Junior FC vs. Club Cerro Porteño end in a draw? Jun 12 $106 −$106 -100%
Knicks vs. 76ers: O/U 213.5 Jun 12 $190 −$190 -100%
Will AC Sparta Praha win on 2026-05-09? Jun 12 $200 −$200 -100%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-05-09? Jun 12 $350 −$350 -100%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait o Jun 12 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 12 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Torino FC vs. US Sassuolo Calcio end in a draw? Jun 12 $33 −$33 -100%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 108.5 Jun 12 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Trump visit China by June 30? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 9.5 Jun 12 $200 −$200 -100%
Shandong Taishan FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will CR Vasco da Gama win on 2026-05-06? Jun 12 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Drake officially release Iceman by May 15, 2026? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Arthur Fils win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Cerezo Ōsaka vs. V-Varen Nagasaki: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $299 −$299 -100%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-05-09? Jun 12 $110 −$110 -100%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian president Jun 12 $107 −$107 -100%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Jun 12 $80 −$80 -100%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Pohang Steelers FC win on 2026-05-09? Jun 12 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Trabzonspor win on 2026-05-09? Jun 12 $100 −$100 -100%
Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2026-05-08? Jun 12 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Orlando Magic advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 2026 NB Jun 12 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31? Jun 12 $50 −$50 -100%
Chelsea FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Stade Lavallois Mayenne FC win on 2026-05-09? Jun 12 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 12 $40 −$40 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 78% +$20,019
other 19% +$4,236
tech 1% +$6,303
world 1% −$561
finance 0% −$212
politics 0% −$387
economics 0% +$149
crypto 0% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 63¢ $3,033 8h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 63¢ $506 8h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 63¢ $708 8h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 79¢ $101 8h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? AN BUY 19¢ $205 8h
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever BUY Indiana Fever 79¢ $101 9h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 69¢ $303 9h
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 19¢ $1,024 21h
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 19¢ $1,024 21h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $2,038 21h
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 35¢ $8,078 28h
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 11¢ $585 28h
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 25¢ $2,378 28h
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 53¢ $10,577 28h
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 65¢ $18,326 28h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 6¢ $1,028 30h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 7¢ $1,028 30h
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 93¢ $4,627 30h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 15¢ $1,025 30h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 23¢ $1,023 30h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 28¢ $2,043 30h
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 67¢ $3,282 30h
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 BUY Over 76¢ $302 31h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 37¢ $3,057 31h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 40¢ $4,072 31h
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H Moneyline BUY Knicks 55¢ $507 31h
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 52¢ $5,110 31h
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 204.5 BUY Over 85¢ $100 31h
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 204.5 BUY Over 85¢ $100 31h
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 204.5 BUY Over 85¢ $100 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 162 -47.7% -52.7% 30% 28% +4.1%
≤30d 1086 -9.1% -17.8% 57% 55% -8.8%
≤90d 1311 -6.6% -15.5% 60% 57% -7.0%
all 1311 -6.6% -15.5% 60% 57% -7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover83.7 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.5% 57% -7.0%
10% -23.6% 42% -15.9%
15% ← realistic here -31.0% 25% -24.0%
20% -37.7% 16% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28,371.36 · official $28,698.04 · 3500 history records