Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T23:23:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1D 0x1d66…7799 sports 160 markets active 3h ago coverage 82d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$24,260 (+10%) realized +$23,706 · open +$554
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate68%106W / 51L
Whale WR58%big bets
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$1,593per market
Trades / day13.3pace
Fees−$2,327est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$2,344now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,096
7 days+$16,815
14 days+$21,140
30 days+$21,140
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% +$24,657
other 2% −$1,418
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +14.0% +3.2% 62% 28% +7.0%
≤30d 56 -2.4% -11.7% 52% 29% +2.8%
≤90d 157 +2.0% -7.8% 68% 29% -1.4%
all 157 +2.0% -7.8% 68% 29% -1.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.3 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.8% 29% -1.4%
10% ← realistic here -16.6% 24% -10.8%
15% -24.6% 20% -19.5%
20% -32.0% 18% -27.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 58% (≥$2,219) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +6% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$930 vs −$1,519 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.3 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$2,344
Realized+$23,706
Unrealized+$554
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses106 / 51
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$2,327
Open positions3
Markets (closed)157 / 160
History coverage82d
Avg bet$1,593
Trades / day13.3
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 157 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $997 $1,285 +$289 (+29%)
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $490 $652 +$163 (+33%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $304 $407 +$103 (+34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,800 −$1,800 -100%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1,030 −$60 -6%
Will FUT win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 15 $112 −$112 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $1,900 +$100 +5%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $263 +$14 +5%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $1,232 −$1,232 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $1,321 +$13 +1%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $5,769 +$7,663 +133%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $407 −$407 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $1,256 −$1,256 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $4,019 −$4,019 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $4,743 +$73 +2%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $4,950 +$50 +1%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $1,148 +$4,312 +376%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $2,326 +$13,168 +566%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $1,539 −$1,539 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $4,985 +$2,238 +45%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $407 +$93 +23%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $4,426 −$4,426 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $7,969 −$7,969 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $1,154 +$12 +1%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $1,550 +$23 +2%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $169 +$93 +55%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $12,508 +$13,914 +111%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $2,691 +$27 +1%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $2,147 +$19 +1%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $2,504 +$25 +1%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $6,019 −$1,019 -17%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $2,272 +$526 +23%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $2,805 +$3,383 +121%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $1,732 +$8 +0%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 11 $5,101 −$5,101 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $9,034 +$5,605 +62%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $2,572 −$2,572 -100%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 3 Winner Jun 08 $309 −$309 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 08 $3,593 −$3,593 -100%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $3,022 +$4,856 +161%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $2,829 −$2,829 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $1,136 +$2,245 +198%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $607 −$607 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $1,470 +$2,030 +138%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $2,264 −$2,264 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $2,015 −$2,015 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $2,211 −$2,211 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $6,005 +$43 +1%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $2,198 +$2,632 +120%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $3,442 +$4,521 +131%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $2,342 −$2,342 -100%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $321 −$321 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Monte (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $280 −$280 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $970 2h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1,030 4h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 95¢ $525 7h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 95¢ $48 7h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 95¢ $221 7h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 95¢ $950 7h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 95¢ $27 7h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 95¢ $19 7h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 95¢ $19 7h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 95¢ $92 7h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 90¢ $1,800 7h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 95¢ $19 8h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 95¢ $2 8h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 95¢ $119 8h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 95¢ $37 8h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 95¢ $28 8h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 95¢ $26 8h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 95¢ $32 8h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 47¢ $752 10h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 47¢ $247 10h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 47¢ $5 10h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 47¢ $177 10h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 47¢ $1 10h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 47¢ $44 10h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 47¢ $6 10h
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $173 11h
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $104 11h
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $150 11h
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $240 11h
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $16 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,344.34 · official $2,346.24 (match) · 1240 history records