Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:42:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1D 0x1d66…928f other 155 markets active 0h ago coverage 217d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$601 (-0%) realized −$1,087 · open +$486
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate60%78W / 51L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,217per market
Trades / day6.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$13,796now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$355
7 days+$792
14 days+$776
30 days−$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 39% +$1,949
politics 24% −$2,310
other 19% −$870
economics 11% −$291
crypto 4% −$65
sports 2% +$136
tech 1% −$24
culture 0% −$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-5.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +24.3% +12.4% 41% 18% -6.9%
≤30d 48 +22.8% +11.1% 54% 15% -9.6%
≤90d 80 +13.6% +2.8% 60% 12% -10.4%
all 129 +4.3% -5.6% 60% 9% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.6% 9% -10.7%
10% -14.7% 8% -19.3%
15% -22.9% 5% -27.1%
20% -30.5% 4% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$1,500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late +14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$111 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

217d coverage
Net worth$13,796
Realized−$1,087
Unrealized+$486
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses78 / 51
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions26
Markets (closed)129 / 155
History coverage217d
Avg bet$1,217
Trades / day6.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 26 History 129 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 93¢ 94¢ $1,658 $1,670 +$12 (+1%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $1,492 $1,498 +$6 (+0%)
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 61¢ 58¢ $1,525 $1,463 −$63 (-4%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Yes 72¢ 100¢ $1,003 $1,393 +$390 (+39%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 79¢ 69¢ $1,576 $1,375 −$202 (-13%)
Trump out as President by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $1,284 $1,293 +$8 (+1%)
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $1,000 $1,005 +$5 (+0%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Yes 60¢ 100¢ $600 $998 +$398 (+66%)
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? No 86¢ 78¢ $645 $589 −$56 (-9%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 85¢ 81¢ $610 $587 −$23 (-4%)
Base FDV above $500M one day after launch? Yes 82¢ 78¢ $380 $366 −$14 (-4%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 78¢ 90¢ $312 $360 +$48 (+15%)
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2027? Yes 78¢ 72¢ $282 $262 −$20 (-7%)
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in June 2026? No 98¢ 99¢ $200 $202 +$2 (+1%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 96¢ 100¢ $192 $199 +$7 (+4%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 13¢ $147 $134 −$14 (-9%)
Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in June 2026? No 81¢ 69¢ $125 $107 −$18 (-14%)
Will Masoud Pezeshkian attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Yes 8¢ 11¢ $46 $64 +$18 (+38%)
Will Trump meet with Changpeng Zhao in 2026? No 77¢ 80¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+5%)
Will Trump meet with Nicolás Maduro in 2026? No 92¢ 91¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by June 30? No 92¢ 94¢ $37 $38 +$1 (+2%)
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $31 $28 −$2 (-7%)
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2027? Yes 48¢ 50¢ $22 $22 +$0 (+2%)
Will Australia go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? No 90¢ 80¢ $18 $16 −$2 (-11%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? No 65¢ 69¢ $13 $14 +$1 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 17 $3,853 −$64 -2%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 17 $1,047 −$93 -9%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Jun 17 $1,732 +$7 +0%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Jun 17 $943 −$114 -12%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? Jun 17 $524 −$97 -18%
Will Senegal go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Jun 16 $38 +$2 +6%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 16 $7,379 +$25 +0%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 16? Jun 16 $296 +$3 +1%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? Jun 16 $423 +$3 +1%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17? Jun 16 $33 −$1 -2%
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele Jun 15 $1,412 −$27 -2%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $20 +$80 +388%
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk in June 2026? Jun 14 $20 +$36 +180%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $408 −$8 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $820 $0 +0%
Will Jordan go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Jun 12 $1 $0 -61%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $476 −$2 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 12 $297 −$1 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 12 $3,340 −$87 -3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 12 $630 +$282 +45%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 11 $3,296 +$850 +26%
Will next Claude Mythos debut on the Text Arena Leaderboard at 1510+? Jun 10 $182 −$3 -2%
Will next Claude Mythos debut on the Text Arena Leaderboard at 1500+? Jun 10 $25 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Jun 10 $860 +$10 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Jun 06 $409 +$3 +1%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? Jun 06 $568 −$40 -7%
Will WhiteHawk Minerals not IPO before August 2026? Jun 06 $0 +$2 +385%
Will WhiteHawk Minerals' market cap be at least $900M at market close Jun 06 $0 +$1 +314%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 06 $12 −$2 -20%
Will Quantinuum's market cap be between $10B and $13B at market close Jun 05 $29 +$1 +4%
Will Quantinuum's market cap be less than $10B at market close on IPO Jun 05 $39 +$1 +3%
Will Quantinuum not IPO before August 2026? Jun 04 $20 $0 +1%
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? Jun 04 $209 −$4 -2%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 04 $1,570 +$13 +1%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 04 $2 $0 +12%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31? Jun 02 $2,186 $0 +0%
Cory Mills out as US Rep by May 31? Jun 02 $86 +$5 +5%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $167 −$83 -50%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 01 $1,449 −$465 -32%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? May 30 $400 $0 -0%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 79m? May 30 $2 −$1 -52%
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by 30% May 27 $51 +$1 +2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? May 26 $247 $0 +0%
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by betw May 26 $49 $0 +0%
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by betw May 26 $18 +$1 +6%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $2,101 −$281 -13%
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? May 26 $3,320 $0 +0%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23? May 25 $140 +$4 +3%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 550k and 600k? May 17 $160 +$3 +2%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 500k and 550k? May 17 $137 −$29 -21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Masoud Pezeshkian attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? SELL Yes 11¢ $64 8m
Will Masoud Pezeshkian attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY Yes 8¢ $92 13m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 95¢ $1,193 2h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL No 53¢ $12 10h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 71¢ $1,220 10h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL No 34¢ $55 11h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL No 48¢ $279 11h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL No 51¢ $43 11h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 73¢ $374 11h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL No 52¢ $112 11h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 74¢ $996 11h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 72¢ $6 11h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL No 34¢ $23 13h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 62¢ $235 13h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 62¢ $186 13h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 62¢ $43 13h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 62¢ $12 13h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 62¢ $82 13h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL No 34¢ $5 13h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL No 34¢ $14 13h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL No 34¢ $1 13h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL No 34¢ $9 13h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 32¢ $5 14h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 32¢ $47 14h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 32¢ $1 14h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL No 34¢ $4 14h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 93¢ $116 15h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 93¢ $46 15h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 91¢ $157 15h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL No 34¢ $2 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13,795.91 · official $13,792.71 (match) · 1823 history records