Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:13:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
1D 0x1d68…4354 sports 228 markets active 0h ago coverage 29d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 29d only
✗ bot/MM pace (116 trades/day) — uncopyable
Total PnL +$13,134 (+18%) realized +$11,340 · open +$1,794
Gross ROI / mkt +57% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +21% what you keep after slip
Net edge+21%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate78%177W / 49L
Whale WR89%big bets
Drawdown7%max
Avg bet$328per market
Trades / day116.2pace
Fees−$908est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$7,469now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,490
7 days+$7,086
14 days+$7,498
30 days+$9,125
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% +$11,043
other 32% +$355
crypto 0% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (116 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+41.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 71 +90.4% +72.2% 80% 66% +29.6%
≤30d 226 +56.6% +41.7% 78% 47% +8.8%
≤90d 226 +56.6% +41.7% 78% 47% +8.8%
all 226 +56.6% +41.7% 78% 47% +8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover116.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +41.7% 47% +8.8%
10% ← realistic here +28.2% 35% -1.6%
15% +15.8% 27% -11.1%
20% +4.4% 21% -19.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +57% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 89% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +54% → late +60% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
8.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$63 vs −$48 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×5.5 per $1 lost it wins $5.5
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$7,469
Realized+$11,340
Unrealized+$1,794
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses177 / 49
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Est. fees paid−$908
Open positions13
Markets (closed)226 / 228
History coverage29d ⚠
Avg bet$328
Trades / day116.2
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 226 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,440 $1,470 +$30 (+2%)
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh Australia 88¢ 88¢ $1,174 $1,181 +$7 (+1%)
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Under 58¢ 76¢ $534 $699 +$165 (+31%)
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Under 32¢ 55¢ $413 $698 +$285 (+69%)
United States vs. Australia: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Under 32¢ 57¢ $377 $678 +$301 (+80%)
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Under 34¢ 58¢ $372 $641 +$268 (+72%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Under 26¢ 55¢ $250 $529 +$279 (+112%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Under 27¢ 56¢ $221 $463 +$242 (+109%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Under 27¢ 54¢ $194 $385 +$191 (+99%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $280 $272 −$8 (-3%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $259 $269 +$11 (+4%)
United States vs. Australia: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Under 74¢ 78¢ $144 $150 +$7 (+5%)
Scotland vs. Brazil: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Under 27¢ 53¢ $17 $33 +$16 (+96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Golden Lions win LRS 2026 Split 1? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bengaluru 2 (Doubles): Kalyanpur/Mukund vs Palan/Singh Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Andrea Pellegrino Jun 15 $3 −$1 -47%
Will Volticons win LRS 2026 Split 1? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Paris: Madison Keys vs Fiona Ferro Jun 15 $66 −$86 -130%
Set Handicap: Prizmic (-1.5) vs Khachanov (+1.5) Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Sorana Cirstea vs Jelena Ostapenko Jun 15 $84 −$84 -100%
Will FK Zorya Luhansk win on 2026-05-12? Jun 15 $128 −$128 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Karen Khachanov vs Dino Prizmic Jun 15 $153 −$153 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Andrey Rublev Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Cordoba (Doubles): Ambrogi/Zeitune vs Oliveira/Villanueva Jun 15 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $974 +$26 +3%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $640 +$520 +81%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 15 $3,117 +$1,177 +38%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 15 $102 $0 +0%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $340 +$235 +69%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $882 +$17 +2%
Nottingham Open: Completed Match: Iva Jovic vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 14 $2 +$1 +24%
Haiti vs. Scotland: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $275 +$173 +63%
Alexander Bublik vs. Taylor Fritz: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $105 +$8 +8%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $9 +$3 +31%
Australia vs. Türkiye: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $513 +$425 +83%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $13 +$2 +17%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 Jun 12 $2 +$1 +72%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $1 +$1 +122%
France vs. Senegal: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $11 +$3 +24%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: struggletony (-3.5) vs MASONIC (+3.5) Jun 12 $3 +$2 +65%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 12 $647 +$83 +13%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $395 +$886 +224%
Bu vs. Riedi: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $248 $0 +0%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $14 +$45 +327%
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $103 +$163 +159%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Team to Take First Corner Jun 11 $71 +$2 +3%
Armando González: 1+ goals Jun 11 $68 +$4 +6%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 11 $0 +$1 +490%
Stuttgart Open (Doubles): Bublik/Kyrgios vs Paul/Seggerman Jun 11 $0 +$1 +1884%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $3 +$2 +57%
Bu vs. Riedi: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 11 $400 $0 +0%
Will the game go to extra innings?: Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Roya Jun 11 $14 +$6 +46%
Will the game go to extra innings?: St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York M Jun 11 $16 +$4 +28%
Will the game go to extra innings?: Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White S Jun 11 $29 +$9 +32%
Will the game go to extra innings?: Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $13 +$5 +39%
Mexico vs. South Africa: South Africa 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $1,300 +$81 +6%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $1 +$1 +131%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $1 +$1 +81%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $40 +$123 +309%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $539 +$1,046 +194%
HSBC Championships (Doubles): Fernandez/Siegemund vs Mboko/Williams Jun 11 $461 +$10 +2%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $23 +$62 +266%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $47 +$161 +342%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $2 3m
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 4m
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $3 8m
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $50 8m
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 9m
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 9m
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 9m
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 9m
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 9m
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 9m
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 9m
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 9m
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $275 9m
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $10 9m
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $25 10m
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $9 10m
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 10m
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $46 11m
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 11m
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $110 12m
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 14m
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $10 14m
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $40 23m
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $100 28m
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $2 30m
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 34m
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 35m
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $40 38m
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 39m
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $6 40m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,469.08 · official $7,470.43 (match) · 3500 history records