Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T08:04:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1D 0x1d68…7544 sports 46 markets active 0h ago coverage 104d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$32 (-14%) realized −$31 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate66%29W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$23now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$11
14 days+$11
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 43% −$8
other 34% +$8
crypto 21% −$27
world 1% −$1
politics 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +56.7% +41.8% 83% 67% +15.4%
≤30d 7 +54.6% +39.8% 86% 71% +15.7%
≤90d 19 -2.7% -11.9% 47% 42% -28.0%
all 44 +0.4% -9.1% 66% 50% -21.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 50% -21.3%
10% -17.8% 25% -28.9%
15% -25.8% 14% -35.7%
20% -33.0% 7% -42.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 45% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$23
Realized−$31
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses29 / 15
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)44 / 46
History coverage104d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 67¢ 64¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $14 $9 −$5 (-36%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ $0 $2 +$2 (+0%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $0 $2 +$2 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $31 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$1 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 21 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 +33%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 18 $1 $0 +48%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $3 +$8 +244%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 14 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET May 22 $42 −$26 -62%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 on March 16? May 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 15 $4 $0 -7%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? May 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Western Sydney Wanderers FC win on 2026-03-13? May 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Will RFK Akhmat Groznyi win on 2026-03-15? May 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 04 $2 −$1 -34%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $3 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Apr 28 $1 $0 +12%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? Apr 26 $1 $0 -2%
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in t Apr 16 $2 +$1 +48%
Dubrovnik: Elena Pridankina vs Polona Hercog Mar 25 $1 $0 +19%
Shandong Hi-Speed Kirin vs. Zhejiang Golden Bulls Mar 17 $1 $0 +10%
Miami Open, Qualification: Madison Brengle vs Linda Fruhvirtova Mar 17 $2 $0 +11%
Zhejiang Lions vs. Ningbo Rockets Mar 17 $2 $0 +16%
Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Akron Zips Mar 16 $1 $0 -2%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Liquid (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Mar 16 $2 $0 +22%
Will Melbourne Victory FC win on 2026-03-15? Mar 15 $2 $0 +11%
Counter-Strike: HyperSpirit vs CSDIILIT (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Mar 15 $2 −$1 -27%
Rainbow Six Siege: VITE vs Can You Be My Enemy (BO3) - Asia-Pacific Le Mar 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will FK Krasnodar win on 2026-03-14? Mar 15 $2 $0 +14%
Dota 2: NAVI Junior vs AVULUS (BO3) - CCT Group A Mar 15 $2 $0 +14%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Pakistan: Bangladesh vs Pakistan Mar 14 $2 +$1 +28%
Will Fatih Karagümrük SK win on 2026-03-13? Mar 14 $2 +$1 +67%
Cherbourg: Remy Bertola vs Borna Gojo Mar 14 $5 +$1 +15%
George Washington Revolutionaries vs. Fordham Rams Mar 13 $2 $0 +23%
Providence Friars vs. St. John's Red Storm Mar 13 $5 $0 +5%
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-03-11? Mar 12 $1 $0 +2%
Cap Cana: Nicolas Mejia vs Shintaro Mochizuki Mar 12 $3 $0 +12%
Tarleton State Texans vs. Abilene Christian Wildcats Mar 12 $5 +$1 +11%
Counter-Strike: Rune Eaters vs Hashiras (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #18 Mar 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Florida Atlantic Owls vs. North Texas Mean Green (W) Mar 12 $9 $0 +4%
LG Sakers vs. Goyang Mar 11 $5 +$1 +25%
Counter-Strike: 33 vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - CIS LAN Championship Group Mar 10 $2 $0 +9%
Counter-Strike: HyperSpirit vs aimclub (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl Mar 10 $5 +$1 +25%
Kigali 2: Marco Cecchinato vs Guy Orly Iradukunda Mar 10 $17 $0 +3%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CIS LAN Championship Gr Mar 10 $10 −$3 -28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 9m
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $34 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 27h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $1 10d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 23d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 24d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 25d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 26d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET SELL Up 15¢ $16 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $42 31d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $0 31d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $31 32d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $2 37d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 47d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 47d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 47d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 47d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL Yes 61¢ $1 48d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 48d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 48d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 49d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET SELL Up 76¢ $1 54d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 54d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $2 54d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.93 · official $22.93 (match) · 144 history records