Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:12:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
1D 0x1d69…f09f sports 15 markets active 0h ago coverage 11d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$69 (+35%) realized +$84 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +83% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +65% what you keep after slip
Net edge+65%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate58%7W / 5L
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 11d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% +$118
other 19% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)+65.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +99.2% +80.2% 64% 64% +86.9%
≤30d 12 +82.6% +65.2% 58% 58% +65.9%
≤90d 12 +82.6% +65.2% 58% 58% +65.9%
all 12 +82.6% +65.2% 58% 58% +65.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +65.2% 58% +65.9%
10% +49.4% 58% +50.0%
15% +35.0% 58% +35.5%
20% +21.7% 58% +22.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 52% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +83% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +83% · $-wt +83% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +107% → late +58% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$9 · ×2.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.67 per $1 lost it wins $3.67
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$84
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses7 / 5
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)12 / 15
History coverage11d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Ghana: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $26 +$53 +208%
Spread: Portugal (-4.5) Jun 23 $15 +$15 +97%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $12 +$18 +145%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $15 +$15 +101%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Norway vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $15 +$14 +93%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $15 +$21 +139%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $5 +$36 +708%
Austria to score first vs. Argentina? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Canada to score first vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $17 −$17 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Ghana: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $79 9m
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 25¢ $15 21m
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 AND England vs. Ghana: O/U 8.5 Total Corner BUY 33¢ $15 33m
England vs. Ghana: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 32¢ $26 1h
Spread: Portugal (-4.5) SELL Portugal 100¢ $30 3h
Spread: Portugal (-4.5) BUY Portugal 50¢ $15 3h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals BUY Yes 46¢ $10 3h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $30 16h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 43¢ $10 17h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 40¢ $12 17h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 49¢ $15 17h
Norway vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $29 20h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $37 20h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 18¢ $5 20h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 41¢ $15 20h
Norway vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 51¢ $15 20h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 100¢ $41 27h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 12¢ $5 27h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score AND Argentina vs. Austria: BUY 35¢ $15 28h
Austria to score first vs. Argentina? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 28h
Canada to score first vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 63¢ $17 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.03 · official $15.03 · 23 history records