Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T23:54:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1D
0x1d6a…a1a1
other · 658 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$484 -8%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$487 · open +$6
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$90
Realized−$487
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses191 / 463
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions4
Markets (closed)654 / 658
History coverage177d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day18.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit47%
Chart Positions 4 History 654 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days−$121
14 days−$188
30 days−$398
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 20¢ 24¢ $45 $54 +$10 (+21%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 28¢ 24¢ $29 $25 −$3 (-11%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 22¢ 20¢ $6 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $6 $5 −$0 (-6%)
XRP Up or Down - June 6, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Up 15¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Up 7¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 7, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? No 15¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Up 29¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 6, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Up 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Down 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 6, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Up 9¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Down 22¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 8, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Down 14¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Up 10¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 8, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Up 23¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Down 35¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 5, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Down 25¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Up 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $55 +$4 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 12 $4 $0 +4%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 12 $2 +$14 +700%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $29 −$10 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 09 $6 −$4 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 09 $14 −$3 -24%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $34 +$6 +19%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $34 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -96%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 08 $4 −$1 -16%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 08 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 08 $4 −$1 -36%
XRP Up or Down - June 8, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 08 $4 $0 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 08 $4 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 08 $3 +$3 +94%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 08 $8 −$1 -13%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $6 −$1 -12%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 8, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -93%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 8, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -93%
XRP Up or Down - June 8, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 08 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 08 $2 $0 +17%
XRP Up or Down - June 8, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 08 $2 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 08 $4 −$1 -29%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 8, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 08 $8 −$1 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 08 $4 −$1 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 08 $4 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 08 $4 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 08 $4 $0 +6%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 8, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 08 $2 −$1 -71%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 8, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 08 $4 +$2 +42%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 8, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 8, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -88%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 8, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 08 $2 +$7 +366%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 08 $4 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 08 $4 −$1 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 08 $4 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 08 $4 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 08 $4 −$1 -33%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 08 $4 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 08 $4 −$1 -22%
XRP Up or Down - June 8, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 08 $4 −$4 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 08 $4 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 8, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 08 $4 $0 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 08 $2 $0 +22%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 8, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 08 $4 −$4 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 08 $2 +$1 +64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 71% −$109
crypto 14% −$124
sports 10% +$4
tech 5% −$244
world 0% −$1
politics 0% −$7
finance 0% −$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 6m
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $5 7m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 25m
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $2 25m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $3 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $7 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $15 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 2h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $20 5h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 5h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $44 5h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $35 8h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 68¢ $5 9h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 9h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $4 9h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 13h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $3 13h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 71¢ $3 13h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $4 13h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $15 13h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $2 13h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $2 14h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $2 14h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 68¢ $3 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-24.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 136 -19.1% -26.8% 32% 20% -29.8%
≤30d 205 -27.8% -34.7% 27% 18% -34.6%
≤90d 319 -15.3% -23.4% 31% 21% -12.5%
all 654 -16.1% -24.1% 29% 20% -16.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover18.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.1% 20% -16.6%
10% -31.4% 15% -24.6%
15% -38.0% 11% -31.9%
20% -44.1% 9% -38.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $90.27 · official $90.27 (match) · 3500 history records