Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:15:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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1D 0x1d6c…72f5 sports 144 markets active 2h ago coverage 31d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$225 (-5%) realized −$216 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate35%49W / 92L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day10.6pace
Fees−$52est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$240now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$41
7 days+$121
14 days−$256
30 days−$315
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% −$447
other 8% −$21
world 0% $0
weather 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +18.8% +7.5% 53% 53% +16.5%
≤30d 130 +5.8% -4.3% 36% 30% -18.1%
≤90d 141 +0.5% -9.1% 35% 29% -20.8%
all 141 +0.5% -9.1% 35% 29% -20.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 29% -20.8%
10% -17.8% 25% -28.3%
15% -25.7% 22% -35.3%
20% -33.0% 21% -41.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$15 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$240
Realized−$216
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses49 / 92
Est. fees paid−$52
Open positions3
Markets (closed)141 / 144
History coverage31d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day10.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 141 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) DR Congo 46¢ 48¢ $143 $148 +$5 (+3%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? No 43¢ 42¢ $93 $92 −$1 (-1%)
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner T1 Academy 21¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 63 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $32 −$32 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $42 +$72 +171%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 +$12 +114%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 +$13 +129%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 +$7 +65%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $10 +$14 +134%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $31 +$58 +189%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $31 +$8 +26%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $20 +$40 +194%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $21 −$21 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $40 +$54 +134%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $31 −$30 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $31 −$30 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $30 +$31 +103%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner Jun 09 $10 $0 +0%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $16 +$18 +108%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $27 +$14 +51%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $152 −$100 -66%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $41 −$40 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $51 −$51 -100%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $1 $0 +0%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $37 −$37 -100%
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs JD Gaming (+1.5) Jun 06 $102 −$100 -98%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $80 +$1 +2%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $60 −$35 -58%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $50 −$15 -30%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 Jun 06 $30 +$5 +17%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 05 $30 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Lynn Vision - Map 2 Winner Jun 05 $25 −$5 -20%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $20 −$10 -50%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Lynn Vision - Map 1 Winner Jun 05 $20 $0 +0%
Game Handicap: AL (-1.5) vs LGD Gaming (+1.5) Jun 05 $20 +$5 +27%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $20 −$10 -50%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 05 $20 +$4 +22%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $20 +$5 +24%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $30 +$5 +17%
Game Handicap: AL (-2.5) vs LGD Gaming (+2.5) Jun 05 $20 −$10 -50%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 04 $20 +$17 +86%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 04 $20 +$18 +88%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 04 $20 −$20 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 04 $20 +$20 +101%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 04 $20 −$20 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 04 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs FlyQuest - Map 2 Winner Jun 04 $20 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 43¢ $94 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 46¢ $145 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 14¢ $3 4h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 20¢ $4 4h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 30¢ $6 4h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 10¢ $2 6h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 14¢ $3 6h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 20¢ $1 6h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 20¢ $3 6h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 25¢ $5 6h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 20¢ $9 7h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 20¢ $1 7h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 25¢ $5 7h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 43¢ $17 7h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers 99¢ $114 7h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 25¢ $5 8h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 32¢ $6 8h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 43¢ $10 8h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 39¢ $20 8h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 27¢ $5 8h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 29¢ $5 9h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 41¢ $6 9h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 42¢ $4 9h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 20¢ $10 9h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Austria 100¢ $22 10h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 42¢ $10 28h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 60¢ $10 28h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 43¢ $10 28h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 46¢ $10 28h
Games Total: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 99¢ $88 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $240.05 · official $239.20 (match) · 405 history records