Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T00:20:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1D 0x1d6c…d803 politics 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 106d
RISKYcopy with care politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$102 (-22%) realized −$65 · open −$37
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%4W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$8
14 days−$8
30 days−$88
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 100% −$63
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)+5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +6.2% -3.9% 40% 40% -11.9%
≤30d 7 -24.0% -31.2% 29% 29% -31.1%
≤90d 9 +42.1% +28.6% 44% 44% -10.9%
all 11 +16.9% +5.7% 36% 36% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.7% 36% -12.7%
10% -4.4% 36% -21.1%
15% -13.6% 36% -28.7%
20% -22.1% 36% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 63% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$56 vs −$35 · ×1.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$65
Unrealized−$37
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses4 / 7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)11 / 12
History coverage106d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 5-10%? Yes 25¢ $38 $1 −$37 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the Jun 21 $100 +$79 +80%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi Jun 21 $26 +$61 +238%
Will voter turnout be 56-60% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian Jun 21 $24 −$24 -100%
Will voter turnout be 51-54% in the first round of the 2026 Colombian Jun 21 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 21 $118 −$103 -88%
Will Iván Cepeda win between 35% and 40% of votes in the first round o Jun 01 $41 −$40 -99%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid May 30 $40 −$40 -99%
Will PLC win the third most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Rep Apr 05 $15 +$51 +340%
Will CD win the second most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Rep Apr 05 $15 +$31 +206%
Will Pacto Histórico win 18-20 seats in the Colombian Senate in the 20 Mar 09 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Juan Daniel Oviedo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Mar 09 $5 −$4 -93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the SELL Yes 99¢ $179 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi SELL Yes 98¢ $87 1h
Will voter turnout be 56-60% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian SELL Yes $0 2h
Will voter turnout be 51-54% in the first round of the 2026 Colombian SELL Yes $0 2h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes $15 2h
Will voter turnout be 56-60% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian BUY Yes 46¢ $24 7h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY Yes 28¢ $26 7h
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the BUY Yes 54¢ $100 26h
Will Iván Cepeda win between 35% and 40% of votes in the first round o SELL Yes $0 20d
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the first round of the 2026 Colombian pres BUY Yes 35¢ $19 22d
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid BUY Yes 78¢ $40 22d
Will Iván Cepeda win between 35% and 40% of votes in the first round o BUY Yes 53¢ $41 22d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 33¢ $19 28d
Will voter turnout be 51-54% in the first round of the 2026 Colombian BUY Yes 18¢ $21 28d
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the first round of the 2026 Colombian pres BUY Yes 20¢ $21 28d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 39¢ $99 38d
Will PLC win the third most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Rep SELL Yes 92¢ $66 77d
Will CD win the second most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Rep SELL Yes 95¢ $46 77d
Will Pacto Histórico win 18-20 seats in the Colombian Senate in the 20 SELL Yes $0 104d
Will Juan Daniel Oviedo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes $0 104d
Will Juan Daniel Oviedo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes $5 105d
Will PLC win the third most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Rep BUY Yes 21¢ $15 105d
Will CD win the second most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Rep BUY Yes 31¢ $15 105d
Will Pacto Histórico win 18-20 seats in the Colombian Senate in the 20 BUY Yes 10¢ $15 105d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.76 · official $0.76 (match) · 24 history records