Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:37:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
1D 0x1d6d…f2b4 other 260 markets active 2h ago coverage 385d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,780 (+3%) realized +$1,731 · open +$49
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate47%120W / 137L
Whale WR79%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$199per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$733now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$300
7 days+$126
14 days+$561
30 days+$1,201
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 49% +$1,744
other 29% −$92
sports 12% +$181
politics 6% +$443
crypto 2% −$586
economics 2% +$126
tech 1% −$3
culture 0% −$59
weather 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-17.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -37.4% -43.4% 40% 40% -7.7%
≤30d 9 +171.5% +145.7% 67% 67% +5.6%
≤90d 76 -14.8% -22.9% 34% 33% -6.8%
all 257 -8.4% -17.1% 47% 40% -6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.1% 40% -6.3%
10% -25.1% 32% -15.3%
15% -32.3% 23% -23.5%
20% -38.9% 19% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 79% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -13% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$98 vs −$73 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

385d coverage
Net worth$733
Realized+$1,731
Unrealized+$49
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses120 / 137
Whale WR (big bets)79%
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions3
Markets (closed)257 / 260
History coverage385d
Avg bet$199
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 257 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $500 $496 −$4 (-1%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? No 50¢ 79¢ $150 $237 +$87 (+58%)
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 17¢ $34 $0 −$34 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $305 −$300 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $203 −$200 -99%
Spread: Panama (-1.5) Jun 18 $5,015 +$541 +11%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $305 −$115 -38%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $504 +$200 +40%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid Jun 08 $65 +$435 +669%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 04 $45 +$455 +1011%
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by May 31? Jun 01 $277 +$74 +27%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 24 $464 +$112 +24%
Olympiacos B.C. vs. Fenerbahce May 22 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Ludvig Aberg finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 PGA Championship? May 18 $18 +$67 +366%
Will Aldrich Potgieter win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Jason Day win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 15 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 15 $25 −$24 -97%
Valencia vs. Panathinaikos May 13 $143 −$140 -98%
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by May 31, 2026? May 11 $240 −$42 -18%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30? May 05 $104 +$42 +41%
Will Iran strike Jordan by April 30, 2026? May 05 $355 +$60 +17%
Will Iran strike Qatar by April 30, 2026? May 05 $789 +$208 +26%
Will Amanda De Ryk win the 2026 London Borough of Lewisham mayoral ele May 04 $82 −$80 -98%
Will Russia enter Vasylivka by April 30, 2026? May 02 $61 +$137 +226%
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30? May 02 $102 +$68 +67%
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by April 30, 2026? May 02 $408 +$102 +25%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Apr 27 $300 +$201 +67%
Will Russia enter Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by April 30? Apr 24 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Apr 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Russia enter Huliaipilske by May 31? Apr 24 $206 −$206 -100%
Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026? Apr 24 $385 −$5 -1%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Apr 24 $204 −$204 -100%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? Apr 16 $880 +$120 +14%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? Apr 16 $1,809 +$591 +33%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 13 $96 −$28 -29%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? Apr 13 $27 +$9 +35%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? Apr 13 $60 −$1 -2%
Will Ludvig Aberg win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 13 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Kristoffer Reitan win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 13 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Gary Woodland win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 13 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Patrick Reed win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 13 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 13 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 13 $19 −$19 -100%
The Masters 2026: Rory McIlroy vs. Scottie Scheffler Apr 13 $38 +$61 +161%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 13 $178 +$176 +99%
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by A Apr 12 $27 +$73 +270%
The Masters 2026: Hole in One? Apr 11 $122 −$60 -50%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 10 $500 −$500 -100%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? Apr 10 $87 +$18 +20%
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 15? Apr 10 $400 +$191 +48%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? Apr 10 $200 −$200 -100%
Israel military action against Iranian Power Plant by April 30? Apr 10 $55 −$55 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $504 1h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Haiti 48¢ $305 46h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $203 3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 26¢ $191 3d
Spread: Panama (-1.5) BUY Ghana 90¢ $5,015 4d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $305 4d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $504 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $576 28d
Olympiacos B.C. vs. Fenerbahce BUY Fenerbahce 19¢ $51 30d
Will Aldrich Potgieter win the 2026 PGA Championship? BUY Yes $2 37d
Will Aldrich Potgieter win the 2026 PGA Championship? BUY Yes $3 37d
Will Aldrich Potgieter win the 2026 PGA Championship? BUY Yes $5 37d
Will Aldrich Potgieter win the 2026 PGA Championship? BUY Yes $10 37d
Will Jason Day win the 2026 PGA Championship? BUY Yes $4 37d
Will Jason Day win the 2026 PGA Championship? BUY Yes $2 37d
Will Ludvig Aberg finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 PGA Championship? BUY Yes 21¢ $17 37d
Will Ludvig Aberg finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 PGA Championship? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 37d
Will Jason Day win the 2026 PGA Championship? BUY Yes $15 37d
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 PGA Championship? BUY Yes $25 37d
Valencia vs. Panathinaikos BUY Panathinaikos 11¢ $41 39d
Valencia vs. Panathinaikos BUY Panathinaikos 18¢ $51 39d
Valencia vs. Panathinaikos BUY Panathinaikos 20¢ $51 39d
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by May 31? BUY No 79¢ $201 39d
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by May 31, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $198 41d
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by May 31? BUY No 79¢ $32 42d
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by May 31? BUY No 79¢ $3 43d
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by May 31? BUY No 79¢ $24 43d
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by May 31? BUY No 79¢ $17 43d
Will Amanda De Ryk win the 2026 London Borough of Lewisham mayoral ele BUY Yes 23¢ $11 48d
Will Amanda De Ryk win the 2026 London Borough of Lewisham mayoral ele BUY Yes 23¢ $2 48d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $733.46 · official $733.53 (match) · 1607 history records