Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T04:36:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1D 0x1d75…3803 crypto 24 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (66 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$63 (+9%) realized +$63 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate50%12W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day66.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$41
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (66 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+21.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +34.8% +21.9% 50% 38% -4.0%
≤30d 24 +34.8% +21.9% 50% 38% -4.0%
≤90d 24 +34.8% +21.9% 50% 38% -4.0%
all 24 +34.8% +21.9% 50% 38% -4.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover66.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +21.9% 38% -4.0%
10% ← realistic here +10.3% 29% -13.2%
15% -0.4% 25% -21.6%
20% -10.2% 21% -29.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +35% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late +89% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$10 · ×1.35 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.35 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$63
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses12 / 12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)24 / 24
History coverage1d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day66.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 24 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 29 $19 +$2 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 29 $25 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 29 $26 +$29 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 29 $104 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 29 $1 +$10 +892%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 29 $201 −$50 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 29 $5 +$30 +571%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 29 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 29 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 29 $31 +$12 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 29 $15 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 28 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 28 $42 +$13 +32%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 28 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 28 $37 +$48 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 28 $10 +$6 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 28 $89 −$7 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 28 $3 −$3 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 6m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 6m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 7m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 7m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET SELL Down 54¢ $10 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET SELL Up 57¢ $109 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $104 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET SELL Up 76¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET SELL Up 17¢ $64 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $63 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET SELL Up 45¢ $87 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $43 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 76 history records