Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T11:25:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
1D 0x1d75…a24a sports 155 markets active 2h ago coverage 104d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL +$156 (+0%) realized +$156 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate64%97W / 55L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$271per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$73est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$687now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$53
7 days−$56
14 days−$38
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$67
sports 40% +$166
politics 8% −$4
world 4% +$4
culture 1% +$3
crypto 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-5.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -1.4% -10.7% 0% 0% -10.7%
≤30d 6 +21.5% +9.9% 67% 33% -10.3%
≤90d 59 +2.4% -7.3% 56% 47% -7.8%
all 152 +4.3% -5.6% 64% 58% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.6% 58% -9.3%
10% -14.7% 49% -18.0%
15% -22.9% 38% -25.9%
20% -30.5% 30% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +9% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$69 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$687
Realized+$156
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses97 / 55
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$73
Open positions3
Markets (closed)152 / 155
History coverage104d
Avg bet$271
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 152 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $623 $624 +$1 (+0%)
Variational FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes 97¢ 95¢ $48 $48 −$1 (-2%)
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? No 96¢ 97¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 43 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $2,065 −$53 -2%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $2,168 −$4 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $40 +$13 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$5 +90%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 27 $30 +$1 +3%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? May 20 $500 +$2 +0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 13 $210 $0 +0%
Spread: Thunder (-9.5) May 10 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Armenia win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 09 $2,680 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 28 $1,950 −$4 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $2,600 $0 -0%
Magic vs. Pistons Apr 26 $10 +$3 +27%
Spread: Thunder (-13.5) Apr 21 $5 +$5 +89%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 21 $17 +$3 +20%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $2,792 −$3 -0%
Hornets vs. Magic Apr 17 $59 −$59 -100%
Warriors vs. Clippers Apr 16 $46 −$46 -100%
Magic vs. 76ers: O/U 219.5 Apr 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Bulls vs. Mavericks Apr 15 $14 +$6 +43%
Warriors vs. Clippers Apr 15 $14 +$6 +45%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $3,058 −$3 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $6,046 −$6 -0%
Spread: Lakers (-17.5) Apr 12 $18 −$18 -100%
Spread: Celtics (-16.5) Apr 12 $10 +$10 +100%
Timberwolves vs. Rockets Apr 10 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $2,925 −$3 -0%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 09 $50 +$24 +48%
Thunder vs. Clippers Apr 09 $700 +$300 +43%
Hornets vs. Celtics Apr 08 $1,755 +$945 +54%
Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets Apr 07 $1,292 +$408 +32%
Rockets vs. Warriors: O/U 223.5 Apr 06 $284 +$175 +62%
Spread: Heat (-16.5) Apr 04 $32 −$32 -100%
Spurs vs. Nuggets Apr 04 $912 −$900 -99%
Magic vs. Mavericks Apr 04 $630 +$262 +42%
Timberwolves vs. Pistons Apr 03 $170 +$113 +66%
Cavaliers vs. Lakers Apr 01 $11 +$9 +79%
Kings vs. Raptors Apr 01 $452 −$451 -100%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 01 $99 $0 -0%
Suns vs. Magic Apr 01 $11 +$9 +86%
Trail Blazers vs. Clippers Mar 31 $620 −$614 -99%
Knicks vs. Rockets Mar 31 $10 −$10 -98%
Celtics vs. Hawks Mar 31 $16 +$14 +91%
Suns vs. Grizzlies: O/U 227.5 Mar 31 $16 +$14 +84%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 30 $895 $0 -0%
Timberwolves vs. Mavericks: O/U 235.5 Mar 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-18.5) Mar 30 $3 −$3 -99%
76ers vs. Heat Mar 30 $17 −$17 -99%
Spread: Kings (-1.5) Mar 30 $10 +$9 +90%
Clippers vs. Bucks Mar 30 $53 +$7 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $2,012 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $2,065 1h
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $1,646 6d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $32 6d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $6 6d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $7 6d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $11 6d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $6 6d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $6 6d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $9 6d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $11 6d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $9 6d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $5 7d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $7 8d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $410 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 8d
Variational FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 97¢ $49 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 11d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $2,168 20d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $623 20d
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $16 20d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 74¢ $40 26d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 97¢ $30 33d
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $500 40d
Spread: Thunder (-9.5) BUY Lakers 67¢ $5 43d
Will Armenia win the televote for Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $2,680 44d
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $200 44d
Will Armenia win the televote for Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2,680 49d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 97¢ $743 54d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 97¢ $1,202 54d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $687.38 · official $687.38 (match) · 421 history records