trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | -1.4% | -10.7% | 0% | 0% | -10.7% |
| ≤30d | 6 | +21.5% | +9.9% | 67% | 33% | -10.3% |
| ≤90d | 59 | +2.4% | -7.3% | 56% | 47% | -7.8% |
| all | 152 | +4.3% | -5.6% | 64% | 58% | -9.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -5.6% | 58% | -9.3% |
| 10% | -14.7% | 49% | -18.0% |
| 15% | -22.9% | 38% | -25.9% |
| 20% | -30.5% | 30% | -33.2% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | No | 94¢ | 94¢ | $623 | $624 | +$1 (+0%) |
| Variational FDV above $100M one day after launch? | Yes | 97¢ | 95¢ | $48 | $48 | −$1 (-2%) |
| Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? | No | 96¢ | 97¢ | $16 | $16 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 22 | $2,065 | −$53 | -2% |
| Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Jun 15 | $2,168 | −$4 | -0% |
| Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Jun 14 | $40 | +$13 | +33% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET | Jun 13 | $5 | $0 | +6% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET | Jun 13 | $5 | +$5 | +90% |
| Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? | May 27 | $30 | +$1 | +3% |
| Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? | May 20 | $500 | +$2 | +0% |
| Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? | May 13 | $210 | $0 | +0% |
| Spread: Thunder (-9.5) | May 10 | $5 | −$5 | -99% |
| Will Armenia win the televote for Eurovision 2026? | May 09 | $2,680 | −$1 | -0% |
| Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Apr 28 | $1,950 | −$4 | -0% |
| Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Apr 27 | $2,600 | $0 | -0% |
| Magic vs. Pistons | Apr 26 | $10 | +$3 | +27% |
| Spread: Thunder (-13.5) | Apr 21 | $5 | +$5 | +89% |
| Trail Blazers vs. Spurs | Apr 21 | $17 | +$3 | +20% |
| Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? | Apr 19 | $2,792 | −$3 | -0% |
| Hornets vs. Magic | Apr 17 | $59 | −$59 | -100% |
| Warriors vs. Clippers | Apr 16 | $46 | −$46 | -100% |
| Magic vs. 76ers: O/U 219.5 | Apr 15 | $30 | −$30 | -99% |
| Bulls vs. Mavericks | Apr 15 | $14 | +$6 | +43% |
| Warriors vs. Clippers | Apr 15 | $14 | +$6 | +45% |
| Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? | Apr 15 | $3,058 | −$3 | -0% |
| Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? | Apr 15 | $6,046 | −$6 | -0% |
| Spread: Lakers (-17.5) | Apr 12 | $18 | −$18 | -100% |
| Spread: Celtics (-16.5) | Apr 12 | $10 | +$10 | +100% |
| Timberwolves vs. Rockets | Apr 10 | $16 | −$16 | -100% |
| Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Apr 10 | $2,925 | −$3 | -0% |
| Timberwolves vs. Magic | Apr 09 | $50 | +$24 | +48% |
| Thunder vs. Clippers | Apr 09 | $700 | +$300 | +43% |
| Hornets vs. Celtics | Apr 08 | $1,755 | +$945 | +54% |
| Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets | Apr 07 | $1,292 | +$408 | +32% |
| Rockets vs. Warriors: O/U 223.5 | Apr 06 | $284 | +$175 | +62% |
| Spread: Heat (-16.5) | Apr 04 | $32 | −$32 | -100% |
| Spurs vs. Nuggets | Apr 04 | $912 | −$900 | -99% |
| Magic vs. Mavericks | Apr 04 | $630 | +$262 | +42% |
| Timberwolves vs. Pistons | Apr 03 | $170 | +$113 | +66% |
| Cavaliers vs. Lakers | Apr 01 | $11 | +$9 | +79% |
| Kings vs. Raptors | Apr 01 | $452 | −$451 | -100% |
| Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Apr 01 | $99 | $0 | -0% |
| Suns vs. Magic | Apr 01 | $11 | +$9 | +86% |
| Trail Blazers vs. Clippers | Mar 31 | $620 | −$614 | -99% |
| Knicks vs. Rockets | Mar 31 | $10 | −$10 | -98% |
| Celtics vs. Hawks | Mar 31 | $16 | +$14 | +91% |
| Suns vs. Grizzlies: O/U 227.5 | Mar 31 | $16 | +$14 | +84% |
| Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Mar 30 | $895 | $0 | -0% |
| Timberwolves vs. Mavericks: O/U 235.5 | Mar 30 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Spread: Spurs (-18.5) | Mar 30 | $3 | −$3 | -99% |
| 76ers vs. Heat | Mar 30 | $17 | −$17 | -99% |
| Spread: Kings (-1.5) | Mar 30 | $10 | +$9 | +90% |
| Clippers vs. Bucks | Mar 30 | $53 | +$7 | +14% |