Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:27:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1D 0x1d76…11ae sports 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,589 (-8%) realized −$1,290 · open −$299
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +176% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +131% what you keep after slip
Net edge+131%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%5W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,841per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$218est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$1,701now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% −$824
other 14% −$2,065
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+150.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +176.3% +150.0% 50% 50% -28.9%
≤30d 10 +176.3% +150.0% 50% 50% -28.9%
≤90d 10 +176.3% +150.0% 50% 50% -28.9%
all 10 +176.3% +150.0% 50% 50% -28.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +150.0% 50% -28.9%
10% +126.1% 40% -35.7%
15% +104.2% 30% -41.9%
20% +84.2% 10% -47.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 64% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +176% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$446 vs −$964 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$1,701
Realized−$1,290
Unrealized−$299
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses5 / 5
Est. fees paid−$218
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage6d
Avg bet$1,841
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 Over 77¢ 66¢ $2,000 $1,701 −$299 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $2,017 +$761 +38%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1,013 +$91 +9%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1,985 +$677 +34%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $1,389 +$595 +43%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $3,921 −$2,532 -65%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,514 −$1,500 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $4,822 −$100 -2%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $682 −$673 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $305 −$16 -5%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $591 +$108 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $2,014 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $2,017 7h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 60¢ $1,078 7h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $1,013 9h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $1,985 26h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 86¢ $1,984 26h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 59¢ $1,389 29h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 28¢ $1,065 29h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 30¢ $59 30h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 32¢ $265 30h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 79¢ $3,921 37h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $505 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $1,010 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 24¢ $102 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 89¢ $5,536 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $4,719 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $682 5d
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 45¢ $289 5d
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $305 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 84¢ $699 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $591 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,701.30 · official $1,727.27 · 23 history records