Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T19:07:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1D 0x1d78…c66c sports 19 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$421 (-12%) realized −$401 · open −$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -52% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -58% what you keep after slip
Net edge-58%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%3W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$191per market
Trades / day5.8pace
Fees−$59est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$630now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% −$390
other 20% −$68
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-56.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -51.7% -56.3% 20% 20% -19.7%
≤30d 15 -51.7% -56.3% 20% 20% -19.7%
≤90d 15 -51.7% -56.3% 20% 20% -19.7%
all 15 -51.7% -56.3% 20% 20% -19.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -56.3% 20% -19.7%
10% -60.5% 20% -27.4%
15% -64.3% 20% -34.4%
20% -67.8% 20% -40.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 82% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -52% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -70% → late -36% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$481 vs −$157 · ×3.07 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$630
Realized−$401
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses3 / 12
Est. fees paid−$59
Open positions4
Markets (closed)15 / 19
History coverage4d
Avg bet$191
Trades / day5.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Over 42¢ 42¢ $300 $296 −$4 (-1%)
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Morocco 32¢ 32¢ $200 $197 −$3 (-2%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Yes 19¢ 14¢ $100 $76 −$24 (-24%)
United States vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 Under 7¢ 8¢ $50 $61 +$11 (+21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $204 +$284 +140%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $51 −$50 -97%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $525 +$905 +172%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $197 −$194 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $100 −$97 -98%
Senegal to score first vs. France? Jun 16 $194 −$190 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $226 −$220 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $123 −$84 -68%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $228 +$254 +112%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $205 −$147 -72%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $103 −$100 -97%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $509 −$500 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $305 1h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 32¢ $204 1h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 7¢ $51 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 19¢ $102 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $204 45h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 11¢ $51 45h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $197 2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 14¢ $100 3d
Senegal to score first vs. France? BUY Yes 27¢ $194 3d
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 36¢ $510 3d
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 36¢ $15 3d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 11¢ $103 3d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 4¢ $35 3d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 35¢ $102 3d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 9¢ $103 3d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 11¢ $123 3d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $123 3d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $482 3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 7¢ $52 3d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 46¢ $228 3d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 7¢ $103 4d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 15¢ $205 4d
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Spain 22¢ $102 4d
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 37¢ $509 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $630.33 · official $617.93 · 26 history records