Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T03:29:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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1D 0x1d7c…51fd crypto 113 markets active 2h ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,073 (-5%) realized −$1,122 · open +$49
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate53%57W / 51L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$177per market
Trades / day17.0pace
Fees−$63est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$354now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days+$202
14 days−$1,157
30 days−$1,459
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 74% −$2,175
sports 22% +$619
other 4% +$146
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-20.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -30.3% -37.0% 31% 31% +1.8%
≤30d 108 -11.6% -20.0% 53% 43% -16.3%
≤90d 108 -11.6% -20.0% 53% 43% -16.3%
all 108 -11.6% -20.0% 53% 43% -16.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.0% 43% -16.3%
10% -27.7% 37% -24.4%
15% -34.6% 31% -31.7%
20% -41.1% 24% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$89 vs −$128 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$354
Realized−$1,122
Unrealized+$49
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses57 / 51
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$63
Open positions5
Markets (closed)108 / 113
History coverage15d
Avg bet$177
Trades / day17.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 108 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $164 +$64 (+64%)
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants San Francisco Giants 57¢ 76¢ $100 $132 +$32 (+32%)
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 6.5 Over 72¢ 42¢ $72 $42 −$30 (-42%)
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5 Over 63¢ 27¢ $32 $14 −$18 (-57%)
Will the San Francisco Giants clinch a spot in the 2026 MLB Postseason? Yes $2 $2 +$0 (+21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 35 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 23 $108 −$5 -4%
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins Jun 21 $109 −$108 -99%
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $387 +$169 +44%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 −$4 -21%
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5) Jun 19 $7 −$7 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 18 $67 −$65 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 18 $134 +$41 +31%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 18 $291 +$339 +116%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 17 $137 +$192 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 17 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $50 +$23 +46%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $50 +$12 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 16 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 16 $255 +$151 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8PM ET Jun 16 $160 −$156 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $139 −$133 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $105 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $308 +$187 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $78 −$75 -96%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $1,379 +$1,095 +79%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) Jun 12 $587 −$581 -99%
Libema Open: Daria Snigur vs Robin Montgomery Jun 12 $30 +$36 +119%
Libema Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Alex de Minaur Jun 12 $10 +$2 +24%
Libema Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 12 $35 +$25 +70%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 12 $132 −$130 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 12 $152 −$150 -98%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 11 $50 +$17 +34%
Stuttgart Open: Rinky Hijikata vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 11 $50 +$20 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 11 $16 +$21 +134%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 11 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 11 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 11 $102 −$5 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 11 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 11 $22 +$2 +10%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $402 +$370 +92%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 10 $571 −$548 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 10 $106 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 10 $502 +$25 +5%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 10, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 10 $118 −$118 -100%
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 10 $50 −$50 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 4PM ET Jun 10 $104 +$145 +139%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 10 $103 +$56 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 10 $309 −$300 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 10 $104 +$101 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 10 $516 +$370 +72%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 10 $102 +$51 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 72¢ $73 1h
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 63¢ $32 1h
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 57¢ $101 2h
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 SELL Over 54¢ $104 6h
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants SELL San Francisco Giants 55¢ $208 6h
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 55¢ $108 6h
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 56¢ $218 6h
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins BUY San Francisco Giants 57¢ $109 2d
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins BUY San Francisco Giants 44¢ $102 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 15¢ $16 4d
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins BUY San Francisco Giants 49¢ $51 4d
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5) BUY San Francisco Giants 37¢ $7 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $16 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $51 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $176 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $102 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $33 6d
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves SELL San Francisco Giants 99¢ $630 6d
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY San Francisco Giants 45¢ $183 6d
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY San Francisco Giants 45¢ $108 6d
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves SELL San Francisco Giants 97¢ $203 6d
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves SELL San Francisco Giants 97¢ $49 6d
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves SELL San Francisco Giants 97¢ $49 6d
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves SELL San Francisco Giants 97¢ $2 6d
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves SELL San Francisco Giants 97¢ $10 6d
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves SELL San Francisco Giants 97¢ $16 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $103 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 6d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 7d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $353.87 · official $353.87 (match) · 323 history records