Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:30:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1D 0x1d7d…e5aa other 41 markets active 2h ago coverage 284d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$23 (-2%) realized −$23 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate15%6W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$23
world 24% −$2
sports 9% $0
politics 8% +$1
economics 7% +$1
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 100% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 12 -2.2% -11.5% 8% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 12 -2.2% -11.5% 8% 0% -9.8%
all 40 -4.0% -13.2% 15% 2% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 2% -11.2%
10% -21.5% 0% -19.7%
15% -29.1% 0% -27.4%
20% -36.0% 0% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

284d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized−$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses6 / 34
Open positions1
Markets (closed)40 / 41
History coverage284d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? No 68¢ 68¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 24 $48 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 16 $45 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $49 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $45 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 12 $35 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 08 $1 $0 -8%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $2 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $50 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $3 $0 -12%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $44 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $31 −$1 -2%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $2 $0 -4%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Mar 25 $9 +$1 +14%
Will Getafe win on 2025-11-28? Jan 31 $45 −$22 -50%
Will the U.S. take over Gaza in 2025? Jan 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 22 $17 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Nov 22 $27 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 22 $13 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 22 $10 $0 +0%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-11-23? Nov 22 $14 $0 -0%
Will Espanyol win on 2025-11-24? Nov 22 $22 $0 +0%
Panthers vs. 49ers Nov 21 $30 $0 +0%
Miami vs. Virginia Tech Nov 21 $20 $0 -0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 21 $46 $0 -0%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 21 $10 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 21 $117 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 20 $24 $0 -0%
Patriots vs. Bengals Nov 20 $6 $0 +0%
Will Valencia win on 2025-11-21? Nov 20 $29 $0 +0%
Will Brighton win on 2025-11-22? Nov 20 $9 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $50 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $103 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 19 $62 $0 +0%
Will Getafe win on 2025-11-23? Nov 17 $19 $0 +0%
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele Nov 17 $45 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 13 $31 $0 -1%
Fed rate cut in 2025? Sep 14 $31 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2400 in September? Sep 14 $31 $0 +0%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by September 30? Sep 13 $31 +$1 +3%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 13 $31 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 68¢ $49 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $15 7h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $29 9h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $44 12h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 20h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $3 20h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 22h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $45 8d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $32 8d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $13 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 56¢ $6 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 56¢ $44 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 56¢ $49 10d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $10 10d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $35 10d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $45 10d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 36¢ $7 11d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 36¢ $28 11d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 36¢ $35 11d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 15d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 17d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 17d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 17d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 17d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 17d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 17d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 18d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 18d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 45¢ $36 18d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 45¢ $11 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.60 · official $48.60 (match) · 280 history records