Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:29:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1D 0x1d7f…b665 other 53 markets active 10h ago coverage 597d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$46 (-0%) realized −$46 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate21%11W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$323per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$9
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 81% −$14
politics 12% −$6
other 4% −$25
crypto 1% +$1
sports 1% −$3
tech 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 16 -6.4% -15.3% 12% 0% -12.8%
≤90d 41 -6.0% -15.0% 22% 10% -11.4%
all 52 -4.8% -13.9% 21% 8% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.9% 8% -9.8%
10% -22.1% 8% -18.4%
15% -29.6% 8% -26.3%
20% -36.5% 8% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 68% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$2 · ×1.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

597d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized−$46
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses11 / 41
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)52 / 53
History coverage597d
Avg bet$323
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 17 $7 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 16 $6 $0 -0%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $7 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $9 $0 -0%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 10 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $7 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $12 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $25 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 02 $13 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $130 in May? Jun 02 $12 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in May? Jun 02 $29 $0 +0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $12 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 30 $10 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 23 $12 $0 -0%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 22 $13 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 18 $57 $0 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 18 $55 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 13 $59 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 12 $57 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $176 $0 -0%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 08 $60 $0 -0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $62 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 6? May 07 $25 $0 +0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $61 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 27 $64 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 21 $63 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $61 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $63 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Apr 19 $61 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $59 $0 -0%
Sabres vs. Rangers Apr 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Rockets vs. Suns Apr 18 $7 +$6 +93%
Blackhawks vs. Sharks Apr 08 $9 +$5 +59%
Lightning vs. Sabres Apr 07 $6 +$7 +108%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? Apr 03 $21 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $150 in March? Apr 03 $42 $0 +0%
Will Poland win on 2026-03-26? Mar 27 $19 −$19 -100%
Avalanche vs. Penguins Mar 27 $21 −$21 -100%
Spread: Arizona Wildcats (-11.5) Mar 24 $21 +$20 +95%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 05 $4 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $30 in February? Mar 05 $79 +$1 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Feb 09 $13,644 −$13 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 11 $2 $0 -1%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? Oct 08 $43 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 11 $12 $0 -1%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 13 $22 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 10 $207 −$2 -1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 31 $535 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $7 10h
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $7 10h
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $33 31h
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $6 34h
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $6 35h
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $7 4d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $7 4d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $9 6d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $9 6d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $7 8d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $7 8d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Philadelphia Phillies 52¢ $8 8d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $12 13d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $12 13d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $13 13d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $13 13d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $13 14d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $13 14d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $12 17d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $12 17d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 18d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 18d
Will Solana reach $130 in May? BUY No 100¢ $12 21d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $12 24d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $12 24d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $12 25d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $12 25d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $13 26d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $13 26d
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in May? BUY No 100¢ $29 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.50 · official $32.50 (match) · 232 history records