Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T22:30:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0

score

1D 0x1d83…8986 other 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 117d

TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$869 (+9%) realized +$996 · open −$127

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip

Net edge-29%after slip

Net WR33%break-even

Win rate33%8W / 16L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$320per market

Trades / day0.4pace

Fees−$60est.

Kalshi-fit47%portable

Net worth$1,823now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$300

7 days−$300

14 days−$300

30 days−$300

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +33%

net ROI/market (all)-28.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%
≤30d	1	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%
≤90d	16	-23.5%	-30.8%	25%	25%	-1.4%
all	24	-21.4%	-28.9%	33%	33%	-3.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.4 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-28.9%	33%	-3.2%
10%	-35.7%	33%	-12.4%
15%	-41.9%	29%	-20.9%
20%	-47.6%	25%	-28.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 55% · top 2 78% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -21% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -45% → late +2% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$485 vs −$210 · ×2.31 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.16 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage

Net worth$1,823

Realized+$996

Unrealized−$127

Win rate (resolved)33%

Wins / losses8 / 16

Est. fees paid−$60

Open positions6

Markets (closed)24 / 30

History coverage117d

Avg bet$320

Trades / day0.4

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 6 History 24 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29?	Yes	29¢	28¢	$500	$491	−$9 (-2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	24¢	23¢	$500	$484	−$16 (-3%)
Mexico vs. Ecuador: Team to Advance	Ecuador	38¢	36¢	$500	$480	−$20 (-4%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-30?	Yes	27¢	26¢	$300	$294	−$6 (-2%)
Will France vs. Sweden end in a draw?	Yes	16¢	16¢	$50	$48	−$2 (-3%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29?	Yes	27¢	6¢	$100	$24	−$76 (-76%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance	Jun 29	$306	−$300	-98%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	May 30	$3,038	+$2,135	+70%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?	May 30	$2,035	−$2,000	-98%
Will FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw?	May 06	$205	+$906	+442%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06?	May 05	$511	−$500	-98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28?	Apr 29	$265	+$385	+146%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 0 FC Bayern München?	Apr 28	$21	−$20	-97%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 3 - 1 FC Bayern München?	Apr 28	$21	−$20	-97%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14?	Apr 15	$100	+$165	+165%
Exact Score: Liverpool FC 0 - 0 Paris Saint-Germain FC?	Apr 14	$20	−$20	-98%
Exact Score: Liverpool FC 0 - 3 Paris Saint-Germain FC?	Apr 14	$55	−$53	-97%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw?	Apr 14	$20	−$20	-98%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-14?	Apr 14	$20	−$20	-98%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15?	Apr 14	$20	−$20	-98%
Exact Score: Club Atlético de Madrid 1 - 3 FC Barcelona?	Apr 14	$10	−$10	-97%
Exact Score: Liverpool FC 1 - 3 Paris Saint-Germain FC?	Apr 14	$20	−$19	-97%
BNP Paribas Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard	Mar 06	$100	+$75	+75%
BNP Paribas Open: Diane Parry vs Venus Williams	Mar 06	$170	+$58	+34%
BNP Paribas Open: Peyton Stearns vs Solana Sierra	Mar 05	$50	−$50	-100%
BNP Paribas Open: Storm Hunter vs Magdalena Frech	Mar 05	$50	−$50	-100%
BNP Paribas Open: Varvara Gracheva vs Lilli Tagger	Mar 05	$100	−$100	-100%
BNP Paribas Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Denis Shapovalov	Mar 05	$80	+$91	+114%
BNP Paribas Open: Mariano Navone vs Marcos Giron	Mar 05	$153	+$62	+41%
BNP Paribas Open: Quentin Halys vs Adam Walton	Mar 04	$238	−$153	-64%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will France vs. Sweden end in a draw?	BUY Yes	16¢	$51	1h
Mexico vs. Ecuador: Team to Advance	BUY Ecuador	38¢	$509	1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-30?	BUY Yes	27¢	$307	1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	29¢	$511	1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	27¢	$102	1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance	BUY Japan	34¢	$306	3h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	24¢	$511	3h
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?	BUY Yes	41¢	$2,035	30d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	BUY Yes	58¢	$3,038	30d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06?	BUY Yes	24¢	$511	55d
Will FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw?	BUY Yes	18¢	$205	55d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28?	BUY Yes	40¢	$265	62d
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 0 FC Bayern München?	BUY Yes	6¢	$21	62d
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 3 - 1 FC Bayern München?	BUY Yes	6¢	$21	62d
Exact Score: Liverpool FC 0 - 0 Paris Saint-Germain FC?	BUY Yes	18¢	$20	76d
Exact Score: Liverpool FC 0 - 3 Paris Saint-Germain FC?	BUY Yes	3¢	$35	76d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw?	BUY Yes	21¢	$20	76d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-14?	BUY Yes	26¢	$20	76d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14?	BUY Yes	37¢	$100	76d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15?	BUY Yes	20¢	$20	76d
Exact Score: Club Atlético de Madrid 1 - 3 FC Barcelona?	BUY Yes	8¢	$10	76d
Exact Score: Liverpool FC 1 - 3 Paris Saint-Germain FC?	BUY Yes	5¢	$20	76d
Exact Score: Liverpool FC 0 - 3 Paris Saint-Germain FC?	BUY Yes	3¢	$20	76d
BNP Paribas Open: Peyton Stearns vs Solana Sierra	BUY Peyton Stearns	81¢	$50	116d
BNP Paribas Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard	BUY Kamil Majchrzak	57¢	$100	116d
BNP Paribas Open: Storm Hunter vs Magdalena Frech	BUY Magdalena Frech	70¢	$50	116d
BNP Paribas Open: Varvara Gracheva vs Lilli Tagger	BUY Varvara Gracheva	60¢	$100	116d
BNP Paribas Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Denis Shapovalov	BUY Denis Shapovalov	47¢	$29	117d
BNP Paribas Open: Mariano Navone vs Marcos Giron	BUY Marcos Giron	71¢	$32	117d
BNP Paribas Open: Quentin Halys vs Adam Walton	BUY Quentin Halys	66¢	$48	117d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,822.60 · official $1,822.78 (match) · 52 history records