Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:26:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1D 0x1d85…c158 other 132 markets active 2h ago coverage 123d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,301 (-1%) realized −$2,301 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate19%25W / 106L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,492per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$438now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$16
14 days−$75
30 days−$124
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$2,090
politics 34% −$82
sports 8% −$150
world 3% −$6
economics 2% −$3
crypto 1% +$3
culture 0% −$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 33 -0.8% -10.2% 12% 6% -9.7%
≤90d 105 -8.5% -17.2% 9% 6% -10.8%
all 131 +0.5% -9.1% 19% 14% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 14% -10.6%
10% -17.8% 14% -19.2%
15% -25.7% 11% -27.0%
20% -33.0% 10% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$2,124) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$31 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

123d coverage
Net worth$438
Realized−$2,301
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses25 / 106
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)131 / 132
History coverage123d
Avg bet$1,492
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 131 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $438 $438 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $2,122 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $2,207 −$3 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $2,554 −$3 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $2,329 −$4 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $2,340 −$3 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $1,046 −$1 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $1,443 −$2 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $3,180 −$5 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $2,762 −$3 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $2,831 −$4 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $1,481 −$2 -0%
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 06 $79 −$79 -100%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 06 $86 +$37 +44%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $3,786 −$4 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $1,048 −$1 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $1,070 −$2 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $6,782 −$7 -0%
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? Jun 02 $343 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? Jun 02 $552 +$4 +1%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $2,386 −$3 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 31 $669 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $2,661 −$3 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 28 $1,054 −$1 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $1,743 −$2 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 26 $894 −$1 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $897 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 25 $2,142 −$2 -0%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $84 −$84 -100%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $732 −$1 -0%
Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox May 23 $52 +$70 +134%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $3,621 −$4 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $1,260 −$2 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 21 $1,274 −$2 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $1,372 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $2,124 −$2 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 10 $1,032 −$1 -0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $3,106 −$4 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 08 $1,183 −$2 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $1,262 −$2 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $1,486 −$2 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $4,360 −$5 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $2,543 −$3 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? May 05 $1,067 −$2 -0%
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 04 $1,521 −$2 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $1,252 −$1 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 03 $1,320 −$2 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $1,524 −$2 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 30 $1,054 −$1 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 29 $1,255 −$2 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 25 $4,316 −$3 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $751 1h
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $752 3h
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $964 26h
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $966 28h
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,043 2d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,044 2d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,040 2d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,042 2d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,042 3d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,044 3d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $1,044 3d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $1,046 3d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $438 5d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,441 7d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,443 7d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,374 7d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,376 7d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,368 8d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,370 8d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,490 8d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,492 8d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $1,471 9d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $1,473 9d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,479 9d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,481 9d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,237 10d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,239 10d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,285 11d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,287 11d
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY BIG 69¢ $86 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $438.01 · official $438.01 (match) · 463 history records