Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:19:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1D 0x1d89…bead other 55 markets active 1h ago coverage 613d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$37 (-1%) realized −$37 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate11%6W / 47L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$87per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$9
14 days−$9
30 days−$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 73% −$12
other 19% −$2
sports 3% −$24
tech 2% $0
culture 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
world 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -25.2% -32.3% 0% 0% -34.4%
≤30d 18 -11.2% -19.7% 11% 0% -14.9%
≤90d 41 -7.2% -16.1% 10% 0% -10.9%
all 53 -5.8% -14.8% 11% 0% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.8% 0% -10.2%
10% -22.9% 0% -18.8%
15% -30.4% 0% -26.7%
20% -37.2% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 78% · top 2 84% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

613d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized−$37
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses6 / 47
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)53 / 55
History coverage613d
Avg bet$87
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $8 $0 -0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $9 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $7 $0 -0%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 10 $9 −$9 -100%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $7 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $12 $0 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 04 $10 $0 -0%
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $11 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $22 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $2.80 in May? Jun 02 $12 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $140 in May? Jun 02 $24 $0 +0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 30 $10 $0 -0%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 24 $10 $0 -0%
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 23 $10 $0 -0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 22 $10 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $54 $0 -0%
Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros May 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 13 $58 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $56 $0 -0%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 11 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $63 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $62 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $67 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $69 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $65 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $64 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 01 $65 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $67 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 24 $63 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 24 $70 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 23 $65 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $136 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 23 $64 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Apr 22 $63 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 19 $64 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $63 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $65 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 18 $67 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in March? Apr 12 $2 $0 +0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Apr 12 $5 $0 +7%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 05 $9 $0 +0%
EdgeX FDV above $4B one day after launch? Feb 27 $9 $0 -3%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Feb 09 $9 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 10 $1 $0 -1%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 19 $31 −$1 -2%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 03 $16 $0 -3%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $22 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 28 $10 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 11 $246 −$2 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 1h
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju BUY No 100¢ $30 32h
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $8 3d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $8 3d
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $9 4d
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $9 5d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $7 5d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $7 6d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $7 7d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $7 7d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Philadelphia Phillies 52¢ $9 7d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $12 10d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $12 10d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $10 12d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 12d
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $11 13d
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $11 13d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 13d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 14d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 16d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 16d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $10 16d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $10 16d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $12 17d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $12 17d
Will XRP reach $2.80 in May? BUY No 100¢ $12 21d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $10 22d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $10 22d
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $10 23d
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $10 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.48 · official $39.48 (match) · 304 history records