Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:04:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1D 0x1d8a…be9d world 31 markets active 2h ago coverage 476d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate47%14W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 56% $0
other 34% $0
crypto 7% $0
weather 2% +$2
economics 0% −$2
sports 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +1.2% -8.5% 12% 12% -9.9%
≤30d 13 +1.3% -8.3% 31% 8% -9.2%
≤90d 14 -0.2% -9.7% 29% 7% -9.8%
all 30 -5.6% -14.6% 47% 7% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.6% 7% -9.7%
10% -22.7% 0% -18.3%
15% -30.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -37.1% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

476d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses14 / 16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)30 / 31
History coverage476d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 90¢ 91¢ $31 $31 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $30 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 22 $5 +$1 +16%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $19 −$1 -4%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $13 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $21 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 19 $37 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $31 −$1 -3%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 17 $31 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $30 +$1 +4%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 26 $30 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 26 $60 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 25 $30 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 25 $19 +$1 +4%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $11 −$2 -20%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $2 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Dec 11 $1 $0 +4%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 11 $2 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500.00 by March 31? Apr 03 $17 $0 +1%
OX.FUN insolvent before April? Mar 30 $17 $0 +0%
March Madness: Will 0 teams seeded #1 make the Final 4? Mar 29 $13 $0 +3%
Will the LA Clippers win the Western Conference? Mar 25 $3 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win Eurovision 2025? Mar 24 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the Eastern Conference? Mar 24 $17 $0 -0%
Israel retaliates against Houthis by Friday? Mar 20 $17 $0 -1%
Will Ontario resume electricity surcharge to the U.S. by next Friday? Mar 20 $10 $0 +2%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? Mar 17 $6 $0 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $85000 and $87000 on Mar 14? Mar 15 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 55°F or higher on March 4? Mar 06 $14 +$2 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $31 2h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 87¢ $30 7h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 87¢ $30 9h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 42h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 17¢ $5 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $14 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $14 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $29 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 26¢ $18 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 27¢ $19 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $13 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $4 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $7 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $21 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $21 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $30 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $10 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $20 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 64¢ $17 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 64¢ $13 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 66¢ $14 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 66¢ $17 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $7 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $7 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $31 6d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $31 6d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 84¢ $18 27d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 84¢ $13 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.84 · official $30.84 (match) · 85 history records