Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:51:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1D 0x1d8c…757a other 947 markets active 0h ago coverage 61d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 60d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$52,059 (+51%) realized +$53,043 · open −$984
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -63% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -71% what you keep after slip
Net edge-71%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate18%151W / 711L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$108per market
Trades / day47.4pace
Fees−$43est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$1,803now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 61d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 29% −$20,449
sports 24% −$22,602
world 19% −$15,405
tech 11% −$4,379
politics 10% −$8,573
culture 3% −$1,899
economics 2% −$934
crypto 1% −$736
weather 0% −$301
finance 0% −$122
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-66.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 109 +58.2% +43.1% 26% 17% -81.6%
≤30d 179 +16.0% +4.9% 25% 16% -79.2%
≤90d 779 -62.6% -66.1% 9% 5% -91.2%
all 779 -62.6% -66.1% 9% 5% -91.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover47.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -66.1% 5% -91.2%
10% ← realistic here -69.4% 4% -92.1%
15% -72.3% 3% -92.8%
20% -75.0% 2% -93.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -90% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -55% · $-wt -90% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -92% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$106 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$1,803
Realized+$53,043
Unrealized−$984
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses151 / 711
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$43
Open positions360
Markets (closed)862 / 947
History coverage61d ⚠
Avg bet$108
Trades / day47.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 360 History 862 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Republican Party win the CA-28 House seat? No 90¢ 90¢ $84 $83 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win the World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $76 $77 +$1 (+1%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 3¢ 99¢ $2 $60 +$59 (+3212%)
Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will England be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? No 67¢ 74¢ $43 $48 +$4 (+10%)
Will Tesla deliver less than 300000 vehicles in Q2 2026 No 100¢ 100¢ $41 $41 −$0 (-0%)
Will Tesla deliver between 300000 and 325000 vehicles in Q2 2026 No 100¢ 100¢ $41 $41 −$0 (-0%)
Will Tesla deliver between 350000 and 375000 vehicles in Q2 2026 No 99¢ 99¢ $41 $41 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 30? Yes 74¢ 79¢ $37 $40 +$2 (+7%)
Will the Republicans win the Oklahoma governor race in 2026? No 9¢ 8¢ $47 $39 −$8 (-17%)
Will Tesla deliver between 425000 and 450000 vehicles in Q2 2026 No 92¢ 92¢ $38 $38 +$0 (+0%)
Will Tesla deliver 475000 or more vehicles in Q2 2026 No 92¢ 92¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-0%)
Will Tesla deliver between 450000 and 475000 vehicles in Q2 2026 No 86¢ 89¢ $35 $36 +$1 (+3%)
Will the Republicans win the Tennessee Senate race in 2026? No 9¢ 6¢ $46 $34 −$12 (-26%)
Will Tesla deliver between 375000 and 400000 vehicles in Q2 2026 No 80¢ 78¢ $33 $32 −$1 (-2%)
Will Tim Greimel be the Democratic Nominee for MI-10? No 86¢ 86¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-0%)
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-0%)
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-0%)
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-0%)
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 48¢ 62¢ $24 $31 +$7 (+29%)
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 22-June 28? No 99¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 22-June 28? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps increase at the July 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-0%)
Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30? No 61¢ 55¢ $30 $27 −$3 (-11%)
Will Julie Gonzales be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Colorado? No 90¢ 91¢ $27 $27 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 137 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Luis Enrique be appointed as manager of Manchester United? Jun 26 $0 $0 —%
Will the New York Islanders win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 26 $27 −$28 -103%
Will Jesper Bratt win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? Jun 26 $0 $0 —%
Will Mauricio Cardenas win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 26 $0 $0 —%
Will the DHS shutdown end between April 17-20, 2026? Jun 26 $0 $0 —%
Will TISZA win 42-46% of the national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian Jun 26 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Legacy win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 26 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Oviedo win the 2025–26 La Liga? Jun 26 $0 $0 —%
Will February be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026? Jun 26 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 T Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will Karim Adeyemi be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 Bundesliga se Jun 26 $0 $0 —%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets in April 2026? Jun 26 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Peru win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $0 $0 —%
Will Marcelo Alves win Big Brother Brasil 26? Jun 26 $0 $0 —%
Will Fabian Lysell win the 2025–2026 NHL Calder Memorial Trophy? Jun 26 $0 $0 —%
Will Owen Tippett win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? Jun 26 $0 $0 —%
Will Amazon have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026? Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will Mackenzie Blackwood win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? Jun 26 $0 $0 —%
Will Tottenham finish in 3rd place in the 2025-26 English Premier Leag Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will Jonathan Burkardt be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 Bundeslig Jun 26 $0 $0 —%
Will Lois Openda be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 Bundesliga seas Jun 26 $0 $0 —%
Will Franz Wagner win the 2025–2026 NBA Clutch Player of the Year? Jun 26 $0 $0 —%
Will Stephen Curry win the 2025–2026 NBA Clutch Player of the Year? Jun 26 $0 $0 —%
Will Arch Manning be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft? Jun 26 $0 $0 —%
Will Trae Young win the 2025–2026 NBA Clutch Player of the Year? Jun 26 $0 $0 —%
Will Jordyn Tyson be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft? Jun 26 $0 $0 —%
Will Alabama win the 2026 College World Series? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Jake Guentzel win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? Jun 26 $0 +$12 —%
Will Oxford United win the 2025-2026 FA Cup? Jun 26 $0 $0 —%
Will Moonshot have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026? Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will Tounde Yessoufou be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 26 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 26 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Juraj Slafkovsky win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? Jun 26 $0 $0 —%
Will Chanelle Torrez win the 2026 Idaho Governor Democratic primary el Jun 26 $0 $0 —%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 26 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Sevilla win the 2025–26 La Liga? Jun 26 $0 $0 —%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets in April 2026? Jun 26 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Bruno Fernandes be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 English Pre Jun 26 $0 $0 —%
Will Ollie Watkins be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 English Premi Jun 26 $0 $0 —%
Will Nico Hischier win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? Jun 26 $0 $0 —%
Will West Ham United win the 2025-2026 FA Cup? Jun 26 $0 $0 —%
Will Levante win the 2025–26 La Liga? Jun 26 $0 $0 —%
Will Alliance for Rights and Freedoms (APS) win the most seats in the Jun 26 $0 $0 —%
Will Rayo Vallecano win the 2025–26 La Liga? Jun 26 $0 $0 —%
Will Thierno Barry be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 English Premi Jun 26 $0 $0 —%
Will Alex Vlasic win the 2025–2026 NHL James Norris Memorial Trophy? Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets in April 2026? Jun 26 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Amen Thompson win the 2025–2026 NBA Most Improved Player? Jun 26 $0 $0 —%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Julie Gonzales be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Colorado? SELL No 92¢ $16 1m
Will Tesla deliver 475000 or more vehicles in Q2 2026 BUY No 92¢ $46 4m
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? SELL No 87¢ $7 8m
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? SELL No 98¢ $28 8m
Will Tesla deliver between 325000 and 350000 vehicles in Q2 2026 BUY No 100¢ $17 9m
Will Tesla deliver between 450000 and 475000 vehicles in Q2 2026 BUY No 86¢ $25 12m
Will Tesla deliver between 450000 and 475000 vehicles in Q2 2026 BUY No 87¢ $18 15m
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Russia? BUY No 100¢ $498 1h
Will Trump and Putin not meet? BUY No 0¢ $2 1h
Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait o BUY No 61¢ $30 1h
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on SELL No 34¢ $1 1h
Will Tesla deliver between 325000 and 350000 vehicles in Q2 2026 BUY No 100¢ $9 1h
Will Tesla deliver between 300000 and 325000 vehicles in Q2 2026 BUY No 100¢ $50 1h
Will Tesla deliver between 400000 and 425000 vehicles in Q2 2026 BUY No 64¢ $32 1h
Will Tesla deliver between 375000 and 400000 vehicles in Q2 2026 BUY No 80¢ $40 1h
Will Tesla deliver between 350000 and 375000 vehicles in Q2 2026 BUY No 99¢ $50 1h
Will Tesla deliver less than 300000 vehicles in Q2 2026 BUY No 100¢ $50 1h
Will Tesla deliver between 425000 and 450000 vehicles in Q2 2026 BUY No 92¢ $46 1h
Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait o BUY No 47¢ $9 1h
Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait o BUY No 64¢ $13 1h
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of BUY No 100¢ $20 1h
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait o BUY No 93¢ $19 1h
Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormu BUY No 96¢ $19 1h
Will Julie Gonzales be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Colorado? BUY No 91¢ $51 1h
Will John Hickenlooper be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Colorad BUY No 8¢ $2 1h
Will John Hickenlooper be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Colorad SELL No 8¢ $20 1h
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on SELL No 58¢ $0 2h
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY No 100¢ $93 2h
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY No 100¢ $93 2h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY No 89¢ $83 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,803.35 · official $1,788.68 (match) · 3500 history records