Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T04:53:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
1D 0x1d8d…856c sports 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$132 (-14%) realized −$132 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate67%4W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$159per market
Trades / day5.2pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$133
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-22.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -14.2% -22.4% 67% 50% -22.1%
≤30d 6 -14.2% -22.4% 67% 50% -22.1%
≤90d 6 -14.2% -22.4% 67% 50% -22.1%
all 6 -14.2% -22.4% 67% 50% -22.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.4% 50% -22.1%
10% -29.8% 50% -29.5%
15% -36.6% 33% -36.3%
20% -42.8% 0% -42.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 78% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% too few recent
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$53 vs −$171 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$132
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses4 / 2
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)6 / 6
History coverage1d
Avg bet$159
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 6 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $31 +$3 +8%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $293 −$293 -100%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $51 −$49 -98%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $243 +$104 +43%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $195 +$44 +23%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $145 +$59 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 92¢ $31 1h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 66¢ $227 8h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 66¢ $66 8h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 29¢ $51 8h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 70¢ $243 28h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 81¢ $195 31h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 71¢ $145 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 12 history records