Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:33:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1D 0x1d90…973f crypto 38 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$265 (-8%) realized +$46 · open −$311
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate71%24W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$87per market
Trades / day39.1pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$139now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 51% −$102
sports 30% −$493
other 20% −$80
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +3.2% -6.6% 71% 59% -21.4%
≤30d 34 +3.2% -6.6% 71% 59% -21.4%
≤90d 34 +3.2% -6.6% 71% 59% -21.4%
all 34 +3.2% -6.6% 71% 59% -21.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.6% 59% -21.4%
10% ← realistic here -15.5% 41% -28.9%
15% -23.7% 29% -35.8%
20% -31.2% 24% -42.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$90 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$139
Realized+$46
Unrealized−$311
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses24 / 10
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions4
Markets (closed)34 / 38
History coverage2d
Avg bet$87
Trades / day39.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 62¢ 60¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Down 30¢ 50¢ $25 $41 +$16 (+65%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Down 39¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-99%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Spirit 58¢ 0¢ $300 $0 −$300 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$8 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$14 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$9 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$16 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 19 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 19 $52 +$57 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 19 $26 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 19 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 19 $101 −$100 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 19 $77 +$17 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 19 $127 +$5 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 19 $103 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 19 $153 −$100 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 19 $51 +$26 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 19 $76 +$9 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 19 $52 +$40 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 19 $52 +$47 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 19 $76 +$53 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 19 $51 +$27 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 19 $178 −$70 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 19 $51 +$21 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 19 $25 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 19 $76 −$75 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 19 $51 +$11 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 19 $51 +$14 +27%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $101 +$29 +29%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $263 +$51 +19%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $263 −$260 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $140 −$61 -44%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $150 +$16 +11%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $101 +$40 +40%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $100 +$15 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $26 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $26 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $8 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Down 51¢ $27 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $26 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Down 78¢ $40 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $26 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET SELL Down 58¢ $35 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $26 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Down 66¢ $28 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $26 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Up 39¢ $42 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $26 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $27 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $109 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $26 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Up 45¢ $25 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $26 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Down 78¢ $94 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $124 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 18¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $26 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $139.41 · official $139.48 (match) · 103 history records