Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T15:35:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1D 0x1d97…3d85 other 114 markets active 2h ago coverage 555d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$23 (-3%) realized −$23 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate83%92W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% +$1
tech 27% +$8
crypto 18% −$21
economics 5% $0
finance 3% $0
politics 2% −$5
world 1% −$2
sports 1% −$3
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-21.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +1.0% -8.6% 100% 0% -8.6%
≤30d 9 +0.5% -9.0% 100% 0% -8.7%
≤90d 38 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.0%
all 111 -13.5% -21.7% 83% 3% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.7% 3% -12.4%
10% -29.2% 1% -20.8%
15% -36.0% 1% -28.4%
20% -42.3% 1% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 74% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

555d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized−$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses92 / 19
Open positions3
Markets (closed)111 / 114
History coverage555d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 111 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Silver (SI) settle over $70 on the final trading day of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $28 $28 +$0 (+0%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June? No 99¢ 99¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+0%)
Will Gold (GC) settle at <$3,800 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 27 $61 +$1 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May? Jun 01 $2 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $170 in May? Jun 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will Google have the third best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $58 +$1 +1%
Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $1 $0 +1%
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Cont Jun 01 $3 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 31 $5 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 30 $2 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in May? May 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Germany be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $55 $0 +0%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $1.60 in April? May 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $150 end of April? May 05 $2 $0 +1%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in April? May 05 $2 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $16 in April? May 05 $2 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? May 05 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m May 05 $3 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 05 $3 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in April? May 05 $3 $0 +0%
Will ByteDance have the second best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 05 $3 $0 +0%
Will Z.ai have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 05 $3 $0 +0%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in April? May 05 $7 $0 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee May 05 $39 $0 +0%
Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the April Meeting? Apr 26 $1 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap Apr 03 $1 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $24 in March? Apr 03 $1 $0 +1%
Will Meta (META) close above $720 end of March? Apr 03 $1 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? Apr 03 $1 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in March? Apr 03 $1 $0 +0%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $160 end of March? Apr 02 $1 $0 +1%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $330 end of March? Apr 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will Z.ai have the third-best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 02 $2 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ma Apr 02 $2 $0 +0%
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $270 end of March? Apr 02 $2 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $1,000 in March? Apr 02 $2 $0 +1%
Will Saudi Aramco be the second-largest company in the world by market Apr 02 $3 $0 +0%
Will Oracle be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 02 $3 $0 +0%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $350 end of March? Apr 02 $31 $0 +0%
Will the Bank of Brazil increase the Selic rate after March 2026 meeti Mar 20 $2 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in February? Mar 03 $1 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the #1 AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 03 $1 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in February? Mar 01 $1 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.25 in February? Mar 01 $2 $0 +1%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $190 by end of February? Mar 01 $2 $0 +1%
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 01 $2 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $200 in February? Mar 01 $2 $0 +1%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 01 $4 $0 +0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,000 by end of February? Mar 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in February? Mar 01 $8 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in February? Mar 01 $11 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Silver (SI) settle over $70 on the final trading day of June 2026 BUY No 100¢ $28 1h
Will Gold (GC) settle at <$3,800 in June? BUY No 99¢ $6 9h
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $7 11h
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 99¢ $61 35h
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Cont BUY Yes 100¢ $3 28d
Will Google have the third best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 99¢ $58 29d
Will Germany be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $55 45d
Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1 50d
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May? BUY No 99¢ $2 52d
Will Meta have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $5 52d
Will Solana reach $170 in May? BUY No 100¢ $5 52d
Will Amazon be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $2 54d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in May? BUY No 100¢ $3 54d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee BUY Yes 100¢ $39 60d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? BUY No 100¢ $3 62d
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $1.60 in April? BUY No 100¢ $1 63d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $3 67d
Will ByteDance have the second best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $3 67d
Will Z.ai have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $3 69d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m BUY No 100¢ $3 70d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in April? BUY No 100¢ $3 70d
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in April? BUY No 100¢ $2 71d
Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the April Meeting? BUY No 100¢ $1 72d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in April? BUY No 99¢ $4 73d
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $150 end of April? BUY Yes 99¢ $2 75d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $16 in April? BUY No 99¢ $2 75d
Will Tesla be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $3 84d
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $350 end of March? BUY No 100¢ $31 89d
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap BUY Yes 100¢ $1 91d
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $330 end of March? BUY No 100¢ $1 92d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.62 · official $40.62 (match) · 228 history records