Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:22:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1D 0x1d99…29e2 crypto 1171 markets active 0h ago coverage 102d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$46 (-0%) realized −$46 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate92%1114W / 98L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$85per market
Trades / day15.9pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 102d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$1,073
other 1% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 108 -37.4% -43.4% 60% 5% -70.9%
≤30d 148 -30.8% -37.4% 66% 6% -56.9%
≤90d 927 -5.8% -14.8% 92% 3% -13.6%
all 1212 -4.9% -14.0% 92% 4% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.0% 4% -11.9%
10% -22.2% 1% -20.3%
15% -29.7% 1% -28.0%
20% -36.6% 1% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$55 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$46
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses1114 / 98
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1212 / 1171
History coverage102d
Avg bet$85
Trades / day15.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1212 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Solana Up or Down - January 11, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Up 72¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Down 94¢ 0¢ $81 $0 −$81 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Up 80¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Down 97¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Down 87¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - April 2, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Down 97¢ 0¢ $48 $0 −$48 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Down 98¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - March 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Down 94¢ 0¢ $26 $0 −$26 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - March 1, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Up 89¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Down 79¢ 0¢ $199 $0 −$199 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Down 96¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - May 10, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Up 56¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Hyperliquid Up or Down - March 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Down 97¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - March 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Up 89¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Down 92¢ 0¢ $37 $0 −$37 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - March 8, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Down 90¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - April 4, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Up 85¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - April 2, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Down 87¢ 0¢ $99 $0 −$99 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Up 68¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Up 85¢ 0¢ $23 $0 −$23 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Up 93¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Up 94¢ 0¢ $106 $0 −$106 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - March 20, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will Botafogo FR win on 2026-05-30? Yes 49¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - January 13, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Up 74¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - January 11, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 15 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 1, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $35 −$35 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 13, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 22, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Opendoor reach $7.50 in January? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 11, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $138 −$138 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 18, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $200 −$200 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 11, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $44 −$44 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 13, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $79 −$79 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 3, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $200 −$200 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 14, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $108 −$108 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 11, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 28, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 9, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 11, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 13, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 31, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $129 −$129 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $108 −$108 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 2, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$1 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $30 +$1 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$1 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $15 +$2 +10%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $20 5m
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 8m
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 8m
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 23m
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $30 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $20 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $10 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 4h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 4h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $30 4h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $21 4h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 5h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 6h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 6h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 8h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 8h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 8h
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 24h
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 24h
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 24h
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 29h
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 29h
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $10 29h
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 30h
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 30h
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records