Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T15:31:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1D 0x1d9d…0b67 other 116 markets active 1h ago coverage 482d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$36 (-0%) realized −$36 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate37%43W / 73L
Whale WR17%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$91per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$41est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$12
14 days−$6
30 days−$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 42% +$4
world 19% −$12
other 18% −$6
sports 17% −$18
finance 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
economics 0% $0
culture 0% $0
weather 0% $0
tech 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -1.9% -11.3% 22% 0% -10.5%
≤30d 23 -2.4% -11.7% 30% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 35 -2.4% -11.7% 26% 0% -9.9%
all 116 -2.7% -12.0% 37% 1% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 1% -9.9%
10% -20.4% 1% -18.5%
15% -28.1% 0% -26.4%
20% -35.2% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 17% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

482d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$36
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses43 / 73
Whale WR (big bets)17%
Est. fees paid−$41
Open positions0
Markets (closed)116 / 116
History coverage482d
Avg bet$91
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 116 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 24 $276 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $12 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $11 −$1 -12%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 21 $132 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $6 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 19 $219 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $133 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 19 $131 +$2 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 17 $202 −$13 -6%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 16 $39 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $146 −$4 -2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $127 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $82 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $107 +$9 +9%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $137 +$1 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 11 $137 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $151 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $137 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $34 −$1 -3%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 09 $43 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $17 −$7 -41%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $41 $0 +0%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 26 $33 $0 -1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? Apr 22 $2 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 1200-1239 tweets in April 2026? Apr 21 $26 −$7 -26%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $292 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 13 $1,124 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $1,037 −$1 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 12 $1,032 +$4 +0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $1,033 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Apr 12 $1,136 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 11 $736 −$18 -2%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 11 $1,056 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 11 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Mar 03 $11 $0 +0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025? Dec 27 $15 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? Dec 24 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Dec 16 $8 $0 +1%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2025-12-20? Dec 16 $22 $0 +0%
Chiefs vs. Titans Dec 15 $11 $0 +0%
Will Real Oviedo win on 2025-12-20? Dec 15 $11 $0 +0%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 15 $11 $0 +0%
Will Girona FC win on 2025-12-21? Dec 15 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 15 $1 $0 -8%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Dec 09 $9 +$2 +24%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $9 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $9 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 25 $9 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $4 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $144 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $144 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $55 10h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $76 10h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $132 11h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $12 35h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $12 35h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $6 37h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 37h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 37h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 16¢ $11 41h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $133 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $132 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes $6 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes $6 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $50 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $82 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $133 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $126 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $7 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $16 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $116 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 68¢ $133 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 67¢ $131 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 22¢ $66 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 20¢ $8 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 20¢ $52 6d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $6 7d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $4 7d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $10 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.63 · official $0.00 (match) · 367 history records