Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T10:27:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score

1D 0x1d9e…a429 crypto 23 markets active 12d ago coverage 177d

TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$119 (-44%) realized −$119 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip

Net edge-13%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate86%19W / 3L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$12per market

Trades / day0.2pace

Kalshi-fit70%portable

Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days$0

7 days$0

14 days−$0

30 days−$0

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-13.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	10	+0.1%	-9.4%	90%	0%	-10.5%
≤90d	20	+0.5%	-9.1%	95%	0%	-9.9%
all	22	-4.1%	-13.2%	86%	0%	-51.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.2 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-13.2%	0%	-51.9%
10%	-21.5%	0%	-56.5%
15%	-29.1%	0%	-60.7%
20%	-36.1%	0%	-64.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 23% · top 2 34% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -4% · $-wt -47% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -9% → late +0% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$0 vs −$40 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.0 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

177d coverage

Net worth$13

Realized−$119

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)86%

Wins / losses19 / 3

Open positions1

Markets (closed)22 / 23

History coverage177d

Avg bet$12

Trades / day0.2

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 22 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Solana reach $600 by December 31, 2026?	No	97¢	99¢	$13	$13	+$0 (+2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Solana reach $80 on June 16?	Jun 17	$1	$0	+1%
Will XRP reach $1.45 on June 16?	Jun 17	$1	$0	+0%
Will XRP reach $1.35 on June 16?	Jun 17	$1	$0	+1%
Will XRP dip to $1.05 on June 16?	Jun 17	$2	$0	+0%
Will Solana reach $85 on June 16?	Jun 17	$1	$0	+0%
Will XRP dip to $1.10 on June 16?	Jun 17	$1	$0	+0%
Will Solana dip to $65 on June 16?	Jun 17	$2	$0	+1%
Will Solana dip to $60 on June 16?	Jun 17	$2	$0	+0%
Will XRP reach $1.40 on June 16?	Jun 17	$2	$0	+0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 16	$10	$0	-3%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March?	May 02	$1	$0	+0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $170 by end of March?	May 02	$1	$0	+0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March?	May 02	$1	$0	+0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $45 by end of March?	May 02	$1	$0	+0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March?	May 02	$1	$0	+1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $50 by end of March?	May 02	$1	$0	+1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $55 by end of March?	May 02	$1	$0	+1%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March?	May 02	$1	$0	+1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of March?	May 02	$1	$0	+2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $65 by end of March?	May 02	$1	$0	+3%
Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Mar 18	$102	$0	-0%
Capitals vs. Red Wings	Dec 21	$119	−$119	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Solana dip to $65 on June 16?	BUY No	99¢	$2	12d
Will Solana dip to $60 on June 16?	BUY No	100¢	$2	12d
Will Solana reach $80 on June 16?	BUY No	99¢	$1	12d
Will Solana reach $85 on June 16?	BUY No	100¢	$1	12d
Will XRP dip to $1.05 on June 16?	BUY No	100¢	$2	12d
Will XRP dip to $1.10 on June 16?	BUY No	100¢	$1	12d
Will XRP reach $1.35 on June 16?	BUY No	99¢	$1	12d
Will XRP reach $1.40 on June 16?	BUY No	100¢	$2	12d
Will XRP reach $1.45 on June 16?	BUY No	100¢	$1	12d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	0¢	$10	12d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	0¢	$1	12d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	0¢	$0	12d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	0¢	$0	12d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	0¢	$9	12d
Will Solana reach $600 by December 31, 2026?	BUY No	97¢	$13	57d
Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch?	SELL Yes	68¢	$102	101d
Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch?	BUY Yes	68¢	$88	101d
Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch?	BUY Yes	68¢	$14	101d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March?	BUY No	99¢	$1	102d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March?	BUY No	99¢	$1	102d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March?	BUY No	100¢	$1	102d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $170 by end of March?	BUY No	100¢	$1	102d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March?	BUY No	100¢	$1	102d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $65 by end of March?	BUY No	97¢	$1	102d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $50 by end of March?	BUY No	99¢	$1	102d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of March?	BUY No	98¢	$1	102d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $55 by end of March?	BUY No	99¢	$1	102d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $45 by end of March?	BUY No	99¢	$1	102d
Capitals vs. Red Wings	BUY Capitals	50¢	$119	189d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.10 · official $13.10 (match) · 76 history records