Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:12:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
1D 0x1d9f…9f3a sports 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$141 (+17%) realized +$141 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +81% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +51% what you keep after slip
Net edge+51%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%7W / 8L
Drawdown88%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day16.4pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% +$400
other 2% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+63.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +81.2% +63.9% 47% 47% +33.6%
≤30d 15 +81.2% +63.9% 47% 47% +33.6%
≤90d 15 +81.2% +63.9% 47% 47% +33.6%
all 15 +81.2% +63.9% 47% 47% +33.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +63.9% 47% +33.6%
10% +48.3% 47% +20.8%
15% +33.9% 40% +9.2%
20% +20.8% 40% -1.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 60% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +48% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +81% · $-wt +48% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +106% → late +59% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$106 vs −$44 · ×2.37 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.08 per $1 lost it wins $2.08
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$141
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses7 / 8
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)15 / 15
History coverage1d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day16.4
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 15 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $19 +$43 +227%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $41 +$316 +772%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $101 −$100 -99%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $41 −$40 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $146 −$115 -78%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $101 −$25 -24%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $17 −$17 -97%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $85 +$67 +79%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $101 +$83 +82%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $19 −$19 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $40 +$131 +325%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 16 $72 +$19 +26%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $18 +$79 +430%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 4¢ $10 1h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 28¢ $31 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 56¢ $101 1h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 30¢ $19 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 24¢ $41 7h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 22¢ $31 7h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $6 7h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 45¢ $76 7h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 4¢ $17 7h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $61 7h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 58¢ $101 8h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $49 8h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $153 8h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 15¢ $27 8h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $31 8h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 55¢ $85 8h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $91 26h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $10 26h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 32¢ $19 27h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 23¢ $40 29h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 BUY Over 18¢ $18 32h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Over 79¢ $72 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 29 history records